Investigating bankruptcy prediction models in the presence of extreme class imbalance and multiple stages of economy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few samples for the minority class) that degrades the performance of the prediction model. Moreover, little research has compared the relative performance of well-known BPM's on public datasets addressing the class imbalance problem. In this work, we apply eight classes of well-known BPMs, as suggested by a review of decades of literature, on a new public dataset named Freddie Mac Single-Family Loan-Level Dataset with resampling (i.e., adding synthetic minority samples) of the minority class to tackle class imbalance. Additionally, we apply some recent AI techniques (e.g., tree-based ensemble techniques) that demonstrate potentially better results on models trained with resampled data. In addition, from the analysis of 19 years (1999-2017) of data, we discover that models behave differently when presented with sudden changes in the economy (e.g., a global financial crisis) resulting in abrupt fluctuations in the national default rate. In summary, this study should aid practitioners/researchers in determining the appropriate model with respect to data that contains a class imbalance and various economic stages.


Designing Quality into Expert Systems: A Case Study in Automated Insurance Underwriting

AAAI Conferences

It can be difficult to design and develop artificial intelligence systems to meet specific quality standards. Often, AI systems are designed to be "as good as possible" rather than meeting particular targets. Using the Design for Six Sigma quality methodology, an automated insurance underwriting expert system was designed, developed, and fielded. Using this methodology resulted in meeting the high quality expectations required for deployment.


Synechron launches AI data science accelerators for FS firms

#artificialintelligence

These four new solution accelerators help financial services and insurance firms solve complex business challenges by discovering meaningful relationships between events that impact one another (correlation) and cause a future event to happen (causation). Following the success of Synechron's AI Automation Program – Neo, Synechron's AI Data Science experts have developed a powerful set of accelerators that allow financial firms to address business challenges related to investment research generation, predicting the next best action to take with a wealth management client, high-priority customer complaints, and better predicting credit risk related to mortgage lending. The Accelerators combine Natural Language Processing (NLP), Deep Learning algorithms and Data Science to solve the complex business challenges and rely on a powerful Spark and Hadoop platform to ingest and run correlations across massive amounts of data to test hypotheses and predict future outcomes. The Data Science Accelerators are the fifth Accelerator program Synechron has launched in the last two years through its Financial Innovation Labs (FinLabs), which are operating in 11 key global financial markets across North America, Europe, Middle East and APAC; including: New York, Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Serbia, Dubai, Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad. With this, Synechron's Global Accelerator programs now includes over 50 Accelerators for: Blockchain, AI Automation, InsurTech, RegTech, and AI Data Science and a dedicated team of over 300 employees globally.


Custom DU: A Web-Based Business User-Driven Automated Underwriting System

AI Magazine

Custom DU is an automated underwriting system that enables mortgage lenders to build their own business rules that facilitate assessing borrower eligibility for different mortgage products. By means of the user interface, lenders can also customize their underwriting findings reports, test the rules that they have defined, and publish changes to business rules on a real-time basis, all without any software modifications. The user interface enforces structure and consistency, enabling business users to focus on their underwriting guidelines when converting their business policy to rules. Using Custom DU, lenders can create different rule sets for their products and assign them to different channels of the business, allowing for centralized control of underwriting policies and procedures--even if lenders have decentralized operations.


IAAI95-005.pdf

AAAI Conferences

The GENIUS Automated Underwriting System is an expert advisor that has been in successful nationwide production by GE Mortgage Insurance Corporation for two years to underwrite mortgage insurance. The knowledge base was developed using a unique hybrid approach combining the best of traditional knowledge engineering and a novel machine learning method called Example Based Evidential Reasoning (EBER). As one indicator of the effkacy of this approach, a complex system was completed in 11 months that achieved a 98% agreement rate with practicing underwriters for approve recommendations in the fist month of operation. This performance and numerous additional business benefits have now been confirmed by two full years of nationwide production during which time some 800,000 applications have been underwritten. As a result of this outstanding success, the GENIUS system is serving as the basis for a major re-engineering of the underwriting process within the business. Also, a new version has recently been announced as an external product to bring the benefits of this technology to the mortgage industry at large. In addition, the concepts and methodology are being applied to other financial services applications such as commercial credit analysis and municipal bond credit enhancement. This paper documents the development process and operational results and concludes with a summary of critical success factors.