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A Physiology-Driven Computational Model for Post-Cardiac Arrest Outcome Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest (CA) face a high risk of neurological disability and death, however pragmatic methods are lacking for accurate and reliable prognostication. The aim of this study was to build computational models to predict post-CA outcome by leveraging high-dimensional patient data available early after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). We hypothesized that model performance could be enhanced by integrating physiological time series (PTS) data and by training machine learning (ML) classifiers. We compared three models integrating features extracted from the electronic health records (EHR) alone, features derived from PTS collected in the first 24hrs after ICU admission (PTS24), and models integrating PTS24 and EHR. Outcomes of interest were survival and neurological outcome at ICU discharge. Combined EHR-PTS24 models had higher discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) than models which used either EHR or PTS24 alone, for the prediction of survival (AUC 0.85, 0.80 and 0.68 respectively) and neurological outcome (0.87, 0.83 and 0.78). The best ML classifier achieved higher discrimination than the reference logistic regression model (APACHE III) for survival (AUC 0.85 vs 0.70) and neurological outcome prediction (AUC 0.87 vs 0.75). Feature analysis revealed previously unknown factors to be associated with post-CA recovery. Results attest to the effectiveness of ML models for post-CA predictive modeling and suggest that PTS recorded in very early phase after resuscitation encode short-term outcome probabilities.


Building Computational Models to Predict One-Year Mortality in ICU Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Post Myocardial Infarction Syndrome

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States. Compared with risk assessment guidelines that require manual calculation of scores, machine learning-based prediction for disease outcomes such as mortality can be utilized to save time and improve prediction accuracy. This study built and evaluated various machine learning models to predict one-year mortality in patients diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction or post myocardial infarction syndrome in the MIMIC-III database. The results of the best performing shallow prediction models were compared to a deep feedforward neural network (Deep FNN) with back propagation. We included a cohort of 5436 admissions. Six datasets were developed and compared. The models applying Logistic Model Trees (LMT) and Simple Logistic algorithms to the combined dataset resulted in the highest prediction accuracy at 85.12% and the highest AUC at .901. In addition, other factors were observed to have an impact on outcomes as well.


Semantically Enhanced Dynamic Bayesian Network for Detecting Sepsis Mortality Risk in ICU Patients with Infection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Although timely sepsis diagnosis and prompt interventions in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are associated with reduced mortality, early clinical recognition is frequently impeded by non-specific signs of infection and failure to detect signs of sepsis-induced organ dysfunction in a constellation of dynamically changing physiological data. The goal of this work is to identify patient at risk of life-threatening sepsis utilizing a data-centered and machine learning-driven approach. We derive a mortality risk predictive dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) guided by a customized sepsis knowledgebase and compare the predictive accuracy of the derived DBN with the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, the Quick SOFA (qSOFA) score, the Simplified Acute Physiological Score (SAPS-II) and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) tools. A customized sepsis ontology was used to derive the DBN node structure and semantically characterize temporal features derived from both structured physiological data and unstructured clinical notes. We assessed the performance in predicting mortality risk of the DBN predictive model and compared performance to other models using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, area under curve (AUROC), calibration curves, and risk distributions. The derived dataset consists of 24,506 ICU stays from 19,623 patients with evidence of suspected infection, with 2,829 patients deceased at discharge. The DBN AUROC was found to be 0.91, which outperformed the SOFA (0.843), qSOFA (0.66), MEWS (0.73), and SAPS-II (0.77) scoring tools. Continuous Net Reclassification Index and Integrated Discrimination Improvement analysis supported the superiority DBN. Compared with conventional rule-based risk scoring tools, the sepsis knowledgebase-driven DBN algorithm offers improved performance for predicting mortality of infected patients in ICUs.


Deep Learning Approach for Predicting 30 Day Readmissions after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hospital Readmissions within 30 days after discharge following Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) Surgery are substantial contributors to healthcare costs. Many predictive models were developed to identify risk factors for readmissions. However, majority of the existing models use statistical analysis techniques with data available at discharge. We propose an ensembled model to predict CABG readmissions using pre-discharge perioperative data and machine learning survival analysis techniques. Firstly, we applied fifty one potential readmission risk variables to Cox Proportional Hazard (CPH) survival regression univariate analysis. Fourteen of them turned out to be significant (with p value < 0.05), contributing to readmissions. Subsequently, we applied these 14 predictors to multivariate CPH model and Deep Learning Neural Network (NN) representation of the CPH model, DeepSurv. We validated this new ensembled model with 453 isolated adult CABG cases. Nine of the fourteen perioperative risk variables were identified as the most significant with Hazard Ratios (HR) of greater than 1.0. The concordance index metrics for CPH, DeepSurv, and ensembled models were then evaluated with training and validation datasets. Our ensembled model yielded promising results in terms of c-statistics, as we raised the the number of iterations and data set sizes. 30 day all-cause readmissions among isolated CABG patients can be predicted more effectively with perioperative pre-discharge data, using machine learning survival analysis techniques. Prediction accuracy levels could be improved further with deep learning algorithms.


Benchmarking machine learning models on eICU critical care dataset

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Progress of machine learning in critical care has been difficult to track, in part due to absence of public benchmarks. Other fields of research (such as vision and NLP) have already established various competitions and benchmarks, whereas only recent availability of large clinical datasets has enabled the possibility of public benchmarks. Taking advantage of this opportunity, we propose a public benchmark suite to address four areas of critical care, namely mortality prediction, estimation of length of stay, patient phenotyping and risk of decompensation. We define each task and compare the performance of both clinical models as well as baseline and deep models using eICU critical care dataset of around 73,000 patients. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of numerical variables as well as handling of categorical variables for each of the defined tasks.