Different but Equal: Comparing User Collaboration with Digital Personal Assistants vs. Teams of Expert Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work compares user collaboration with conversational personal assistants vs. teams of expert chatbots. Two studies were performed to investigate whether each approach affects accomplishment of tasks and collaboration costs. Participants interacted with two equivalent financial advice chatbot systems, one composed of a single conversational adviser and the other based on a team of four experts chatbots. Results indicated that users had different forms of experiences but were equally able to achieve their goals. Contrary to the expected, there were evidences that in the teamwork situation that users were more able to predict agent behavior better and did not have an overhead to maintain common ground, indicating similar collaboration costs. The results point towards the feasibility of either of the two approaches for user collaboration with conversational agents.

Efficient Statistical Methods for Evaluating Trading Agent Performance

AAAI Conferences

Market simulations, like their real-world counterparts, are typically domains of high complexity, high variability, and incomplete information. The performance of autonomous agents in these markets depends both upon the strategies of their opponents and on various market conditions, such as supply and demand. Because the space for possible strategies and market conditions is very large, empirical analysis in these domains becomes exceedingly difficult. Researchers who wish to evaluate their agents must run many test games across multiple opponent sets and market conditions to verify that agent performance has actually improved. Our approach is to improve the statistical power of market simulation experiments by controlling their complexity, thereby creating an environment more conducive to structured agent testing and analysis. We develop a tool that controls variability across games in one such market environment, the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM), and demonstrate how it provides an efficient, systematic method for TAC SCM researchers to analyze agent performance.

A comparison of apartment rent price prediction using a large dataset: Kriging versus DNN

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The hedonic approach based on a regression model has been widely adopted for the prediction of real estate property price and rent. In particular, a spatial regression technique called Kriging, a method of interpolation that was advanced in the field of spatial statistics, are known to enable high accuracy prediction in light of the spatial dependence of real estate property data. Meanwhile, there has been a rapid increase in machine learning-based prediction using a large (big) dataset and its effectiveness has been demonstrated in previous studies. However, no studies have ever shown the extent to which predictive accuracy differs for Kriging and machine learning techniques using big data. Thus, this study compares the predictive accuracy of apartment rent price in Japan between the nearest neighbor Gaussian processes (NNGP) model, which enables application of Kriging to big data, and the deep neural network (DNN), a representative machine learning technique, with a particular focus on the data sample size (n = 10^4, 10^5, 10^6) and differences in predictive performance. Our analysis showed that, with an increase in sample size, the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of DNN approached that of NNGP and they were nearly equal on the order of n = 10^6. Furthermore, it is suggested that, for both higher and lower end properties whose rent price deviates from the median, DNN may have a higher predictive accuracy than that of NNGP.

Lagged correlation-based deep learning for directional trend change prediction in financial time series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach predictions of directional trend changes via complex lagged correlations between them, excluding any information about the target series from the respective inputs to achieve predictions purely based on such correlations with other series. We propose the use of deep neural networks that employ step-wise linear regressions with exponential smoothing in the preparatory feature engineering for this task, with regression slopes as trend strength indicators for a given time interval. We apply this method to historical stock market data from 2011 to 2016 as a use case example of lagged correlations between large numbers of time series that are heavily influenced by externally arising new information as a random factor. The results demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach, with state-of-the-art accuracies and accounting for the statistical significance of the results for additional validation, as well as important implications for modern financial economics.

A Theory of Dichotomous Valuation with Applications to Variable Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An econometric or statistical model may undergo a marginal gain when a new variable is admitted, and a marginal loss if an existing variable is removed. The value of a variable to the model is quantified by its expected marginal gain and marginal loss. Assuming the equality of opportunity, we derive a few formulas which evaluate the overall performance in potential modeling scenarios. However, the value is not symmetric to marginal gain and marginal loss; thus, we introduce an unbiased solution. Simulation studies show that our new approaches significantly outperform a few practice-used variable selection methods.