The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model.

Timely diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease is extremely important, as treatments and interventions are more effective early in the course of the disease. However, early diagnosis has proven to be challenging. Research has linked the disease process to changes in metabolism, as shown by glucose uptake in certain regions of the brain, but these changes can be difficult to recognize. "Differences in the pattern of glucose uptake in the brain are very subtle and diffuse," said study co-author Jae Ho Sohn, M.D., from the Radiology & Biomedical Imaging Department at the University of California in San Francisco (UCSF). "People are good at finding specific biomarkers of disease, but metabolic changes represent a more global and subtle process."

IMAGE: Example of fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose PET images from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative set preprocessed with the grid method for patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). One representative zoomed-in section was provided... view more OAK BROOK, Ill. - Artificial intelligence (AI) technology improves the ability of brain imaging to predict Alzheimer's disease, according to a study published in the journal Radiology. Timely diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease is extremely important, as treatments and interventions are more effective early in the course of the disease. However, early diagnosis has proven to be challenging. Research has linked the disease process to changes in metabolism, as shown by glucose uptake in certain regions of the brain, but these changes can be difficult to recognize.

This paper proposes REFUEL, a reinforcement learning method with two techniques: {\em reward shaping} and {\em feature rebuilding}, to improve the performance of online symptom checking for disease diagnosis. Reward shaping can guide the search of policy towards better directions. Feature rebuilding can guide the agent to learn correlations between features. Together, they can find symptom queries that can yield positive responses from a patient with high probability. Experimental results justify that the two techniques in REFUEL allows the symptom checker to identify the disease more rapidly and accurately.

There might be a lot of hype around what machine learning and artificial intelligence can do for healthcare, but a new study could showcase the real-life potential of the technology for early disease detection. The study, conducted by Microsoft and Duke University and published in late April in Nature's npj Digital Medicine, showcases the power of trained machine learning models to automatically detect neurodegenerative disorders by using information from patient interactions with search engines. The research is specific to Parkinson's disease but could be adapted to fit similar neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease. SIGN UP: Get more news from the HealthTech newsletter in your inbox every two weeks! With Parkinson's disease impacting nearly 1 percent of people over age 60, it is the second-most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder, the researcher authors note in the study's abstract.