Having raised rates four times last year, the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, have pledged to be "patient" about rates -- which most analysts have taken to mean that they're done raising rates for at least a few months. Investors are collectively betting that the Fed won't raise its benchmark rate at all this year. But the NABE survey found that 39 percent of economists foresee one rate increase -- and 26 percent say they think the Fed will raise rates twice this year.
"Our growth continues to be above the OECD average and confirms the successful change that is taking place in our economy as we move from the largest resources investment boom in our history to broader-based growth," Morrison told reporters, referring to the 35-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
There is a straightforward narrative of the economy in 2020: The world shut down in the spring because of the coronavirus pandemic, causing an economic collapse without modern precedent. A sharp recovery began in May as businesses reopened. That is accurate as far as it goes. But the snapback effect over the summer has masked something more worrying: We've entered a longer, slower grind that puts the economy at risk for the indefinite future. In the details of government employment data -- covering hundreds of industries -- can be seen a jobs crisis that penetrates deeply into the economy. Sectors that in theory shouldn't be much affected by the pandemic at all are showing patterns akin to a severe recession.