Higher Order Probabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A number of writers have supposed that for the full specification of belief, higher order probabilities are required. Some have even supposed that there may be an unending sequence of higher order probabilities of probabilities of probabilities.... In the present paper we show that higher order probabilities can always be replaced by the marginal distributions of joint probability distributions. We consider both the case in which higher order probabilities are of the same sort as lower order probabilities and that in which higher order probabilities are distinct in character, as when lower order probabilities are construed as frequencies and higher order probabilities are construed as subjective degrees of belief. In neither case do higher order probabilities appear to offer any advantages, either conceptually or computationally.


What is a Probability Distribution ? Determine its Type for Your Data

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Probability Distribution is an important topic that each data scientist should know for the analysis of the data. It defines all the related possibility outcomes of a variable. In this, the article you will understand all the Probability Distribution types that help you to determine the distribution for the dataset. There are two types of distribution. In the discrete Distribution, the sum of the probabilities of all the individuals is equal to one.


Probability Distributions in Data Science

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Having a sound statistical background can be greatly beneficial in the daily life of a Data Scientist. Every time we start exploring a new dataset, we need to first do an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) in order to get a feeling of what are the main characteristics of certain features. If we are able to understand if it's present any pattern in the data distribution, we can then tailor-made our Machine Learning models to best fit our case study. In this way, we will be able to get a better result in less time (reducing the optimisation steps). In fact, some Machine Learning models are designed to work best under some distribution assumptions.


An Approximation of Surprise Index as a Measure of Confidence

AAAI Conferences

Probabilistic graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are intuitive and theoretically sound tools for modeling uncertainty. A major problem with applying Bayesian networks in practice is that it is hard to judge whether a model fits well a case that it is supposed to solve. One way of expressing a possible dissonance between a model and a case is the {\em surprise index}, proposed by Habbema, which expresses the degree of surprise by the evidence given the model. While this measure reflects the intuition that the probability of a case should be judged in the context of a model, it is computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose an efficient way of approximating the surprise index.


Probability Density and Mass Functions in Machine Learning - Machine Philosopher

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You will hear the term probability distribution many times when working with data and machine learning models. These are extremely helpful in certain cases such as naive Bayes' where the model needs to know a lot about the probabilities of its data! What it will be referring to is either the probability density function or the probability mass function of our data, lets have a look at the important differences! In machine learning, we often provide models with distributions of probabilities to tell us about what values any new data samples are likely to be. If we are working with continuous random variables, then we would use a probability density function to model the probability of any variable being near a certain value (continuous data does not have exact probabilities, as we will see below).