Tesla CEO Elon Musk reckons autonomous driving technology is so advanced that within a year humans would be worse off taking over a vehicle's control. Musk made the prediction in an interview with MIT researcher Lex Fridman, who published a recent study on "driver functional vigilance" when using Tesla Autopilot. Musk boasted that Telsa's technology was "vastly ahead of everyone", which would include Waymo and GM-backed Cruise Automation, and that "right now this seems like game, set and match". He believes Tesla's technology is almost at the point where allowing humans to steer the vehicle would be more dangerous than relying on Autopilot. "I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe even towards the end of this year – but I'd say, I'd be shocked if it's not next year at the latest – that having a human intervene will decrease safety," predicted Musk.
Building effective, enjoyable, and safe autonomous vehicles is a lot harder than has historically been considered. The reason is that, simply put, an autonomous vehicle must interact with human beings. This interaction is not a robotics problem nor a machine learning problem nor a psychology problem nor an economics problem nor a policy problem. It is all of these problems put into one. It challenges our assumptions about the limitations of human beings at their worst and the capabilities of artificial intelligence systems at their best. This work proposes a set of principles for designing and building autonomous vehicles in a human-centered way that does not run away from the complexity of human nature but instead embraces it. We describe our development of the Human-Centered Autonomous Vehicle (HCAV) as an illustrative case study of implementing these principles in practice.
Fully autonomous vehicles may still technically be on the horizon, but according to CEO Elon Musk, Tesla's dominance of the market is already'game, set, and match.' In an interview with MIT researcher, Lex Fridman, Musk claims that the company should achieve its quest for fully autonomous vehicles in as little as six months, and at the most, in one year. As reported by Ars Technica, Musk said that the vehicles could come to fruition'maybe even toward the end of this year,' adding, 'I'd be shocked if it's not next year at the latest.' Tesla CEO Elon Musk says fully autonomous vehicles are around the corner, but agggresive estimates have drawn criticism from industry experts. While Musk's claims that Tesla will be delivering the world's first fully autonomous vehicles on an expedited timeline, the forecast has raised the eyebrows of industry skeptics who say the company's overblown projections constitute false advertising at best.
It's been roughly a year since I posted my viral "AI winter is well on its way" post and like I promised I'll periodically post an update on the general AI landscape. I posted one some 6 months ago and now is time for another one. And there has been a lot of stuff going on lately and none of it has changed my mind - the AI bubble is bursting. And as with every bubble bursting we are in a blowoff phase in which those who have the most to lose are pulling out the most outrageous confidence pumping pieces they could think of, the ultimate strategy to con some more naive people to give them money. But let's go over what has been going on.
In the race to start the world's first driving business without human drivers, everyone is chasing Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo. The Google sibling has cleared the way to beat its nearest rivals, General Motors Co. and a couple of other players, by at least a year to introduce driverless cars to the public. A deal reached in January to buy thousands of additional Chrysler Pacifica minivans, which get kitted out with sensors that can see hundreds of yards in any direction, puts Waymo's lead into stark relief. No other company is offering for-hire rides yet, let alone preparing to carry passengers in more than one city this year. GM plans to start a ride-hailing service with its Chevrolet Bolt--the one with no steering wheel or pedals, the ultimate goal in autonomous technology--late next year, assuming the U.S. government has protocols in place by then. SoftBank Vision Fund, the gigantic Japanese tech investor, backed that plan on May 31 by dropping $2.25 billion into GM Cruise Holdings, the automaker's autonomous drive unit. Most of the others trying solve the last remaining self-driving puzzles are more cautious, targeting 2020 or later. The road to autonomy is long and exceedingly complicated. It can also be dangerous: Two high-profile efforts, from Uber Technologies Inc. and Tesla Inc., were involved in crashes that caused the death of a pedestrian (in the first known case of a person killed by a self-driving vehicle) and a driver using an assistance program touted as a precursor to autonomy. One of Waymo's autonomous vans was involved in a collision just last week.