We're seeing consumer happiness dropping in some interesting brands, as the stocks sit near all-time highs. At LikeFolio, we measure consumer happiness and purchase intent levels for the brands and products behind publicly traded companies. You can think of this as a real-time channel check to determine how consumers on Main Street are reacting at the product level, before it becomes financial news on Wall Street. Let's dive into these potential divergence opportunities, starting with online booking companies Priceline and Expedia. Consumer happiness is falling to near all-time lows on Priceline (see chart) and down for Expedia.
Two weeks ago, the TD Ameritrade Ad challenge took a unique approach to the Super Bowl by determining which public companies received the most positive exposure through commercials broadcast during the game. At $5 million per 30-second spot, investors want to know which companies are best utilizing their marketing dollars. To calculate this measurement, the firm used LikeFolio's social data technology to track advertisers' brands and products' "definitely positive mentions" on Twitter during the Super Bowl. Scores for each brand and product were added together to determine an overall score for each publicly traded company, resulting in a clear list of companies that got the most out of their advertising dollar. Incredibly positive response and to top it off, the company did it on a budget by recycling the ad and airing it prior to kickoff.
Twitter's influence on the stock market isn't breaking news (traders used Twitter data to predict Brexit, the 2016 election and other societal moves), but a new app is trying to put that knowledge into the hands of more people -- not just bankers and professional stocker traders. SEE ALSO: Tesla is the most valuable U.S. car company? LikeFolio, released this week, uses Twitter data and mobile notifications to keep people on top of how the market could be moving. For example, a user can choose to sign-up for a section of the app called "Sharks," which includes big-name investors. Just because O'Leary tweeted about Snapchat ($SNAP on the New York Stock Exchange) doesn't mean the stock is going to move one way or another.
On Sunday night, we will all be watching a fierce battle among the world's best competitors. No, I'm not talking about football – I'm talking about the commercials and the enormous spending that goes into them. Companies are dropping millions upon millions for 30 seconds of access to consumer eyeballs. So, the real question here isn't "what do ad experts think about the commercials" – it's "what do real consumers think about the commercials". Because it's consumers who are making purchasing decisions and potentially driving revenues for these companies…and that's what matters to investors like us.
We now have at least three warnings about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) over the last few months that have been validated by recent events. In April, before Apple released earnings, we noted that social data aggregator LikeFolio had put out a sell rating on the stock based on their analysis of social media data, and we presented a couple ways for concerned shareholders to hedge if they wanted to stay long (Hedging Apple Ahead Of Earnings). When we plot "purchase intent mentions" for Apple on a 30 day moving average, we see a steady erosion over the past 4-6 months. We also have seen FAR lower purchase intent mentions surrounding Apple's new product releases than prior (even comparably minor) product releases. In an article last month (Apple: The Next BlackBerry?), we shared Marco Arment's warning about Apple slipping behind in AI (artificial intelligence).