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Verified Uncertainty Calibration

Neural Information Processing Systems

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires $O(B/\epsilon 2)$ samples, compared to $O(1/\epsilon 2)$ for scaling methods, where $B$ is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function that acts like a baseline for variance reduction and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration.


Artificial Intelligence Helps Improve NASA's Eyes on the Sun

#artificialintelligence

A group of researchers is using artificial intelligence techniques to calibrate some of NASA's images of the Sun, helping improve the data that scientists use for solar research. A solar telescope has a tough job. Staring at the Sun takes a harsh toll, with a constant bombardment by a never-ending stream of solar particles and intense sunlight. Over time, the sensitive lenses and sensors of solar telescopes begin to degrade. To ensure the data such instruments send back is still accurate, scientists recalibrate periodically to make sure they understand just how the instrument is changing.


Blind Calibration in Compressed Sensing using Message Passing Algorithms

Neural Information Processing Systems

Compressed sensing (CS) is a concept that allows to acquire compressible signals with a small number of measurements. As such, it is very attractive for hardware implementations. Therefore, correct calibration of the hardware is a central issue. In this paper we study the so-called blind calibration, i.e. when the training signals that are available to perform the calibration are sparse but unknown. We extend the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm used in CS to the case of blind calibration.


Efficiency in Real-time Webcam Gaze Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficiency and ease of use are essential for practical applications of camera based eye/gaze-tracking. Gaze tracking involves estimating where a person is looking on a screen based on face images from a computer-facing camera. In this paper we investigate two complementary forms of efficiency in gaze tracking: 1. The computational efficiency of the system which is dominated by the inference speed of a CNN predicting gaze-vectors; 2. The usability efficiency which is determined by the tediousness of the mandatory calibration of the gaze-vector to a computer screen. To do so, we evaluate the computational speed/accuracy trade-off for the CNN and the calibration effort/accuracy trade-off for screen calibration. For the CNN, we evaluate the full face, two-eyes, and single eye input. For screen calibration, we measure the number of calibration points needed and evaluate three types of calibration: 1. pure geometry, 2. pure machine learning, and 3. hybrid geometric regression. Results suggest that a single eye input and geometric regression calibration achieve the best trade-off.


Calibration tests in multi-class classification: A unifying framework

Neural Information Processing Systems

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is often not sufficient. We propose and study calibration measures for multi-class classification that generalize existing measures such as the expected calibration error, the maximum calibration error, and the maximum mean calibration error. We propose and evaluate empirically different consistent and unbiased estimators for a specific class of measures based on matrix-valued kernels. Importantly, these estimators can be interpreted as test statistics associated with well-defined bounds and approximations of the p-value under the null hypothesis that the model is calibrated, significantly improving the interpretability of calibration measures, which otherwise lack any meaningful unit or scale.