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Artificial Intelligence and Statistical Techniques in Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electrical utilities depend on short-term demand forecasting to proactively adjust production and distribution in anticipation of major variations. This systematic review analyzes 240 works published in scholarly journals between 2000 and 2019 that focus on applying Artificial Intelligence (AI), statistical, and hybrid models to short-term load forecasting (STLF). This work represents the most comprehensive review of works on this subject to date. A complete analysis of the literature is conducted to identify the most popular and accurate techniques as well as existing gaps. The findings show that although Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) continue to be the most commonly used standalone technique, researchers have been exceedingly opting for hybrid combinations of different techniques to leverage the combined advantages of individual methods. The review demonstrates that it is commonly possible with these hybrid combinations to achieve prediction accuracy exceeding 99%. The most successful duration for short-term forecasting has been identified as prediction for a duration of one day at an hourly interval. The review has identified a deficiency in access to datasets needed for training of the models. A significant gap has been identified in researching regions other than Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia.


Deep Belief Networks Based Feature Generation and Regression for Predicting Wind Power

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Wind energy forecasting helps to manage power production, and hence, reduces energy cost. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) mimics hierarchical learning in the human brain and thus possesses hierarchical, distributed, and multi-task learning capabilities. Based on aforementioned characteristics, we report Deep Belief Network (DBN) based forecast engine for wind power prediction because of its good generalization and unsupervised pre-training attributes. The proposed DBN-WP forecast engine, which exhibits stochastic feature generation capabilities and is composed of multiple Restricted Boltzmann Machines, generates suitable features for wind power prediction using atmospheric properties as input. DBN-WP, due to its unsupervised pre-training of RBM layers and generalization capabilities, is able to learn the fluctuations in the meteorological properties and thus is able to perform effective mapping of the wind power. In the deep network, a regression layer is appended at the end to predict sort-term wind power. It is experimentally shown that the deep learning and unsupervised pre-training capabilities of DBN based model has comparable and in some cases better results than hybrid and complex learning techniques proposed for wind power prediction. The proposed prediction system based on DBN, achieves mean values of RMSE, MAE and SDE as 0.124, 0.083 and 0.122, respectively. Statistical analysis of several independent executions of the proposed DBN-WP wind power prediction system demonstrates the stability of the system. The proposed DBN-WP architecture is easy to implement and offers generalization as regards the change in location of the wind farm is concerned.


Neural network with data augmentation in multi-objective prediction of multi-stage pump

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A multi-objective prediction method of multi-stage pump method based on neural network with data augmentation is proposed. In order to study the highly nonlinear relationship between key design variables and centrifugal pump external characteristic values (head and power), the neural network model (NN) is built in comparison with the quadratic response surface model (RSF), the radial basis Gaussian response surface model (RBF), and the Kriging model (KRG). The numerical model validation experiment of another type of single stage centrifugal pump showed that numerical model based on CFD is quite accurate and fair. All of prediction models are trained by 60 samples under the different combination of three key variables in design range respectively. The accuracy of the head and power based on the four predictions models are analyzed comparing with the CFD simulation values. The results show that the neural network model has better performance in all external characteristic values comparing with other three surrogate models. Finally, a neural network model based on data augmentation (NNDA) is proposed for the reason that simulation cost is too high and data is scarce in mechanical simulation field especially in CFD problems. The model with data augmentation can triple the data by interpolation at each sample point of different attributes. It shows that the performance of neural network model with data augmentation is better than former neural network model. Therefore, the prediction ability of NN is enhanced without more simulation costs. With data augmentation it can be a better prediction model used in solving the optimization problems of multistage pump for next optimization and generalized to finite element analysis optimization problems in future.


Deep Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Networks for Intellectual Analysis of Economic Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In tis paper we consider approaches for time series forecasting based on deep neural networks and neuro-fuzzy nets. Also, we make short review of researches in forecasting based on various models of ANFIS models. Deep Learning has proven to be an effective method for making highly accurate predictions from complex data sources. Also, we propose our models of DL and Neuro-Fuzzy Networks for this task. Finally, we show possibility of using these models for data science tasks. This paper presents also an overview of approaches for incorporating rule-based methodology into deep learning neural networks.


6 Types of Artificial Neural Networks Currently Being Used in Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Artificial neural networks are computational models which work similar to the functioning of a human nervous system. There are several kinds of artificial neural networks. These type of networks are implemented based on the mathematical operations and a set of parameters required to determine the output.