A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

End-to-end learning has recently emerged as a promising technique to tackle the problem of autonomous driving. Existing works show that learning a navigation policy from raw sensor data may reduce the system's reliance on external sensing systems, (e.g. GPS), and/or outperform traditional methods based on state estimation and planning. However, existing end-to-end methods generally trade off performance for safety, hindering their diffusion to real-life applications. For example, when confronted with an input which is radically different from the training data, end-to-end autonomous driving systems are likely to fail, compromising the safety of the vehicle. To detect such failure cases, this work proposes a general framework for uncertainty estimation which enables a policy trained end-to-end to predict not only action commands, but also a confidence about its own predictions. In contrast to previous works, our framework can be applied to any existing neural network and task, without the need to change the network's architecture or loss, or to train the network. In order to do so, we generate confidence levels by forward propagation of input and model uncertainties using Bayesian inference. We test our framework on the task of steering angle regression for an autonomous car, and compare our approach to existing methods with both qualitative and quantitative results on a real dataset. Finally, we show an interesting by-product of our framework: robustness against adversarial attacks.

Deep Bayesian Multi-Target Learning for Recommender Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the increasing variety of services that e-commerce platforms provide, criteria for evaluating their success become also increasingly multi-targeting. This work introduces a multi-target optimization framework with Bayesian modeling of the target events, called Deep Bayesian Multi-Target Learning (DBMTL). In this framework, target events are modeled as forming a Bayesian network, in which directed links are parameterized by hidden layers, and learned from training samples. The structure of Bayesian network is determined by model selection. We applied the framework to Taobao live-streaming recommendation, to simultaneously optimize (and strike a balance) on targets including click-through rate, user stay time in live room, purchasing behaviors and interactions. Significant improvement has been observed for the proposed method over other MTL frameworks and the non-MTL model. Our practice shows that with an integrated causality structure, we can effectively make the learning of a target benefit from other targets, creating significant synergy effects that improve all targets. The neural network construction guided by DBMTL fits in with the general probabilistic model connecting features and multiple targets, taking weaker assumption than the other methods discussed in this paper. This theoretical generality brings about practical generalization power over various targets distributions, including sparse targets and continuous-value ones.



This article follows my previous one on Bayesian probability & probabilistic programming that I published few months ago on LinkedIn. And for the purpose of this article, I am going to assume that most this article readers have some idea what a Neural Network or Artificial Neural Network is. Neural Network is a non-linear function approximator. We can think of it as a parameterized function where the parameters are the weights & biases of Neural Network through which we will be typically passing our data (inputs), that will be converted to a probability between 0 and 1, to some kind of non-linearity such as a sigmoid function and help make our predictions or estimations. These non-linear functions can be composed together hence Deep Learning Neural Network with multiple layers of this function compositions.

A Bayesian Method for Joint Clustering of Vectorial Data and Network Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a new model-based integrative method for clustering objects given both vectorial data, which describes the feature of each object, and network data, which indicates the similarity of connected objects. The proposed general model is able to cluster the two types of data simultaneously within one integrative probabilistic model, while traditional methods can only handle one data type or depend on transforming one data type to another. Bayesian inference of the clustering is conducted based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A special case of the general model combining the Gaussian mixture model and the stochastic block model is extensively studied. We used both synthetic data and real data to evaluate this new method and compare it with alternative methods. The results show that our simultaneous clustering method performs much better. This improvement is due to the power of the model-based probabilistic approach for efficiently integrating information.