Estimating Nonlinear Dynamics with the ConvNet Smoother Machine Learning

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from a series of noise-corrupted observations is fundamental in many areas of science and engineering. The most well-known method, the Kalman smoother (and the related Kalman filter), relies on assumptions of linearity and Gaussianity that are rarely met in practice. In this paper, we introduced a new dynamical smoothing method that exploits the remarkable capabilities of convolutional neural networks to approximate complex non-linear functions. The main idea is to generate a training set composed of both latent states and observations from an ensemble of simulators and to train the deep network to recover the former from the latter. Importantly, this method only requires the availability of the simulators and can therefore be applied in situations in which either the latent dynamical model or the observation model cannot be easily expressed in closed form. In our simulation studies, we show that the resulting ConvNet smoother has almost optimal performance in the Gaussian case even when the parameters are unknown. Furthermore, the method can be successfully applied to extremely non-linear and non-Gaussian systems. Finally, we empirically validate our approach via the analysis of measured brain signals.

Multivariate Uncertainty in Deep Learning Machine Learning

--Deep learning is increasingly used for state estimation problems such as tracking, navigation, and pose estimation. The uncertainties associated with these measurements are typically assumed to be a fixed covariance matrix. For many scenarios this assumption is inaccurate, leading to worse subsequent filtered state estimates. We show how to model multivariate uncertainty for regression problems with neural networks, incorporating both aleatoric and epistemic sources of heteroscedastic uncertainty. We train a deep uncertainty covariance matrix model in two ways: directly using a multivariate Gaussian density loss function, and indirectly using end-to-end training through a Kalman filter . We experimentally show in a visual tracking problem the large impact that accurate multivariate uncertainty quantification can have on Kalman filter estimation for both in-domain and out-of- domain evaluation data.

Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series Using Locally Coupled Gaussian Processes Machine Learning

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method for analyzing time series. In this paper, we introduce a new framework for analyzing nonstationary time series using locally stationary Gaussian process analysis with parameters that are coupled through a hidden Markov model. The main advantage of this framework is that arbitrary complex nonstationary covariance functions can be obtained by combining simpler stationary building blocks whose hidden parameters can be estimated in closed-form. We demonstrate the flexibility of the method by analyzing two examples of synthetic nonstationary signals: oscillations with time varying frequency and time series with two dynamical states. Finally, we report an example application on real magnetoencephalographic measurements of brain activity.

The Use of Gaussian Processes in System Identification Machine Learning

Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to form time series prediction models such as non-linear finite-impulse response (NFIR) models as well as non-linear autoregressive (NARX) models. Gaussian process state-space models (GPSS) can be used to learn the dynamic and measurement models for a state-space representation of the input-output data. Temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian processes can be directly used to form regressor on the data in the time domain. The aim of this article is to briefly outline the main directions in system identification methods using Gaussian processes.

A Gaussian process latent force model for joint input-state estimation in linear structural systems Machine Learning

The problem of combined state and input estimation of linear structural systems based on measured responses and a priori knowledge of structural model is considered. A novel methodology using Gaussian process latent force models is proposed to tackle the problem in a stochastic setting. Gaussian process latent force models (GPLFMs) are hybrid models that combine differential equations representing a physical system with data-driven non-parametric Gaussian process models. In this work, the unknown input forces acting on a structure are modelled as Gaussian processes with some chosen covariance functions which are combined with the mechanistic differential equation representing the structure to construct a GPLFM. The GPLFM is then conveniently formulated as an augmented stochastic state-space model with additional states representing the latent force components, and the joint input and state inference of the resulting model is implemented using Kalman filter. The augmented state-space model of GPLFM is shown as a generalization of the class of input-augmented state-space models, is proven observable, and is robust compared to conventional augmented formulations in terms of numerical stability. The hyperparameters governing the covariance functions are estimated using maximum likelihood optimization based on the observed data, thus overcoming the need for manual tuning of the hyperparameters by trial-and-error. To assess the performance of the proposed GPLFM method, several cases of state and input estimation are demonstrated using numerical simulations on a 10-dof shear building and a 76-storey ASCE benchmark office tower. Results obtained indicate the superior performance of the proposed approach over conventional Kalman filter based approaches.