A Dynamic Bayesian Network for Diagnosing Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

AAAI Conferences

When a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines (SAMGs). However, current SAMGs are limited in scope and depth. The plant operators must work to mitigate the accident with limited experience and guidance for the situation. The SMART (Safely Managing Accidental Reactor Transients) procedures framework aims to fill the need for detailed guidance by creating a comprehensive probabilistic model, using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, to aid in the diagnosis of the reactor’s state. In this paper, we explore the viability of the proposed SMART proceedures approach by building a prototype Bayesian network that allows for the diagnosis of two types of accidents based on a comprehensive data set. We use Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence to gauge the relative importance of each of the plant’s parameters. We compare accuracy and F-score measures across four different Bayesian networks: a baseline network that ignores observation variables, a network that ignores data from the observation variable with the highest K-L score, a network that ignores data from the variable with the lowest K-L score, and finally a network that includes all observation variable data. We conclude with an interpretation of these results for SMART procedures.


Predicting Power Failures with Reactive Point Processes

AAAI Conferences

We present a new statistical model for predicting discrete events continuously in time, called Reactive Point Processes (RPP’s). RPP’s are a natural fit for many domains where time-series data are available, and their development was motivated by the important problem of predicting serious events (fires, explosions, power failures) in the underground electrical grid of New York City. RPP’s capture several important properties of this domain such as self-exciting and self-regulating properties as well as the diminishing returns of many events or inspections in a row.


Impulsive Noise Mitigation in Powerline Communications Using Sparse Bayesian Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Additive asynchronous and cyclostationary impulsive noise limits communication performance in OFDM powerline communication (PLC) systems. Conventional OFDM receivers assume additive white Gaussian noise and hence experience degradation in communication performance in impulsive noise. Alternate designs assume a parametric statistical model of impulsive noise and use the model parameters in mitigating impulsive noise. These receivers require overhead in training and parameter estimation, and degrade due to model and parameter mismatch, especially in highly dynamic environments. In this paper, we model impulsive noise as a sparse vector in the time domain without any other assumptions, and apply sparse Bayesian learning methods for estimation and mitigation without training. We propose three iterative algorithms with different complexity vs. performance trade-offs: (1) we utilize the noise projection onto null and pilot tones to estimate and subtract the noise impulses; (2) we add the information in the data tones to perform joint noise estimation and OFDM detection; (3) we embed our algorithm into a decision feedback structure to further enhance the performance of coded systems. When compared to conventional OFDM PLC receivers, the proposed receivers achieve SNR gains of up to 9 dB in coded and 10 dB in uncoded systems in the presence of impulsive noise.


ABACUS: Unsupervised Multivariate Change Detection via Bayesian Source Separation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on individual channels. In this paper, we are interested in locating additive outliers (AO) and level shifts (LS) in the unsupervised setting. We propose ABACUS, Automatic BAyesian Changepoints Under Sparsity, a Bayesian source separation technique to recover latent signals while also detecting changes in model parameters. Multi-level sparsity achieves both dimension reduction and modeling of signal changes. We show ABACUS has competitive or superior performance in simulation studies against state-of-the-art change detection methods and established latent variable models. We also illustrate ABACUS on two real application, modeling genomic profiles and analyzing household electricity consumption.


A New Class of Time Dependent Latent Factor Models with Applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent factors (or features) within the building such as the number of individuals, the turning on and off of electrical devices, power surges, etc. These latent factors are usually present for a contiguous period of time before disappearing; further, multiple factors could be present at a time. This paper develops new probabilistic methodology and inference methods for random object generation influenced by latent features exhibiting temporal persistence. Every datum is associated with subsets of a potentially infinite number of hidden, persistent features that account for temporal dynamics in an observation. The ensuing class of dynamic models constructed by adapting the Indian Buffet Process --- a probability measure on the space of random, unbounded binary matrices --- finds use in a variety of applications arising in operations, signal processing, biomedicine, marketing, image analysis, etc. Illustrations using synthetic and real data are provided.