Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving networks is change-point detection, in which we both identify the times at which the large-scale pattern of interactions changes fundamentally and quantify how large and what kind of change occurred. Here, we formalize for the first time the network change-point detection problem within an online probabilistic learning framework and introduce a method that can reliably solve it. This method combines a generalized hierarchical random graph model with a Bayesian hypothesis test to quantitatively determine if, when, and precisely how a change point has occurred. We analyze the detectability of our method using synthetic data with known change points of different types and magnitudes, and show that this method is more accurate than several previously used alternatives. Applied to two high-resolution evolving social networks, this method identifies a sequence of change points that align with known external shocks'' to these networks.
In this paper we present a loss-based approach to change point analysis. In particular, we look at the problem from two perspectives. The first focuses on the definition of a prior when the number of change points is known a priori. The second contribution aims to estimate the number of change points by using a loss-based approach recently introduced in the literature. The latter considers change point estimation as a model selection exercise. We show the performance of the proposed approach on simulated data and real data sets.
Recommender systems have become essential tools in many application areas as they help alleviate information overload by tailoring their recommendations to users' personal preferences. Users' interests in items, however, may change over time depending on their current situation. Without considering the current circumstances of a user, recommendations may match the general preferences of the user, but they may have small utility for the user in his/her current situation.We focus on designing systems that interact with the user over a number of iterations and at each step receive feedback from the user in the form of a reward or utility value for the recommended items. The goal of the system is to maximize the sum of obtained utilities over each interaction session. We use a multi-armed bandit strategy to model this online learning problem and we propose techniques for detecting changes in user preferences. The recommendations are then generated based on the most recent preferences of a user. Our evaluation results indicate that our method can improve the existing bandit algorithms by considering the sudden variations in the user's feedback behavior.
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for continuous time multi-stable stochastic systems which can change both their diffusion and drift parameters at discrete times. We propose exact inference and sampling methodologies for two specific cases where the discontinuous dynamics is given by a Poisson process and a two-state Markovian switch. We test the methodology on simulated data, and apply it to two real data sets in finance and systems biology. Our experimental results show that the approach leads to valid inferences and non-trivial insights. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.
Interactive recommender systems that enable the interactions between users and the recommender system have attracted increasing research attentions. Previous methods mainly focus on optimizing recommendation accuracy. However, they usually ignore the diversity of the recommendation results, thus usually results in unsatisfying user experiences. In this paper, we propose a novel diversified recommendation model, named Diversified Contextual Combinatorial Bandit (DC$^2$B), for interactive recommendation with users' implicit feedback. Specifically, DC$^2$B employs determinantal point process in the recommendation procedure to promote diversity of the recommendation results. To learn the model parameters, a Thompson sampling-type algorithm based on variational Bayesian inference is proposed. In addition, theoretical regret analysis is also provided to guarantee the performance of DC$^2$B. Extensive experiments on real datasets are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.