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Uncertainty-Aware Attention for Reliable Interpretation and Prediction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent uncertainty to the attention mechanism, such that it generates attention for each feature with varying degrees of noise based on the given input, to learn larger variance on instances it is uncertain about. We learn this Uncertainty-aware Attention (UA) mechanism using variational inference, and validate it on various risk prediction tasks from electronic health records on which our model significantly outperforms existing attention models. The analysis of the learned attentions shows that our model generates attentions that comply with clinicians' interpretation, and provide richer interpretation via learned variance. Further evaluation of both the accuracy of the uncertainty calibration and the prediction performance with "I don't know'' decision show that UA yields networks with high reliability as well.


Uncertainty-Aware Attention for Reliable Interpretation and Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent uncertainty to the attention mechanism, such that it generates attention for each feature with varying degrees of noise based on the given input, to learn larger variance on instances it is uncertain about. We learn this Uncertainty-aware Attention (UA) mechanism using variational inference, and validate it on various risk prediction tasks from electronic health records on which our model significantly outperforms existing attention models. The analysis of the learned attentions shows that our model generates attentions that comply with clinicians' interpretation, and provide richer interpretation via learned variance. Further evaluation of both the accuracy of the uncertainty calibration and the prediction performance with "I don't know" decision show that UA yields networks with high reliability as well.


Uncertainty-Aware Attention for Reliable Interpretation and Prediction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent uncertainty to the attention mechanism, such that it generates attention for each feature with varying degrees of noise based on the given input, to learn larger variance on instances it is uncertain about. We learn this Uncertainty-aware Attention (UA) mechanism using variational inference, and validate it on various risk prediction tasks from electronic health records on which our model significantly outperforms existing attention models. The analysis of the learned attentions shows that our model generates attentions that comply with clinicians' interpretation, and provide richer interpretation via learned variance.


Confidence Calibration in Deep Neural Networks through Stochastic Inferences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence (score) of a prediction through stochastic inferences in deep neural networks. We first analyze relation between variation of multiple model parameters for a single example inference and variance of the corresponding prediction scores by Bayesian modeling of stochastic regularization. Our empirical observation shows that accuracy and score of a prediction are highly correlated with variance of multiple stochastic inferences given by stochastic depth or dropout. Motivated by these facts, we design a novel variance-weighted confidence-integrated loss function that is composed of two cross-entropy loss terms with respect to ground-truth and uniform distribution, which are balanced by variance of stochastic prediction scores. The proposed loss function enables us to learn deep neural networks that predict confidence calibrated scores using a single inference. Our algorithm presents outstanding confidence calibration performance and improves classification accuracy with two popular stochastic regularization techniques---stochastic depth and dropout---in multiple models and datasets; it alleviates overconfidence issue in deep neural networks significantly by training networks to achieve prediction accuracy proportional to confidence of prediction.


DropMax: Adaptive Variational Softmax

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose DropMax, a stochastic version of softmax classifier which at each iteration drops non-target classes according to dropout probabilities adaptively decided for each instance. Specifically, we overlay binary masking variables over class output probabilities, which are input-adaptively learned via variational inference. This stochastic regularization has an effect of building an ensemble classifier out of exponentially many classifiers with different decision boundaries. Moreover, the learning of dropout rates for non-target classes on each instance allows the classifier to focus more on classification against the most confusing classes. We validate our model on multiple public datasets for classification, on which it obtains significantly improved accuracy over the regular softmax classifier and other baselines. Further analysis of the learned dropout probabilities shows that our model indeed selects confusing classes more often when it performs classification.