The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machine learning techniques (Generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood, random forest, support vector regression with linear kernel, and stacking ensemble) were used to forecast the price of Bitcoin. The prediction models employed key and high dimensional technical indicators as the predictors. The performance of these techniques were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R-squared). The performance metrics revealed that the stacking ensemble model with two base learner (random forest and generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood) and support vector regression with linear kernel as meta-learner was the optimal model for forecasting Bitcoin price. The MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R-squared values for the stacking ensemble model were 0.0191%, 15.5331 USD, 124.5508 USD, and 0.9967 respectively. These values show a high degree of reliability in predicting the price of Bitcoin using the stacking ensemble model. Accurately predicting the future price of Bitcoin will yield significant returns for investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market.
Stock price prediction is a challenging task, but machine learning methods have recently been used successfully for this purpose. In this paper, we extract over 270 hand-crafted features (factors) inspired by technical and quantitative analysis and tested their validity on short-term mid-price movement prediction. We focus on a wrapper feature selection method using entropy, least-mean squares, and linear discriminant analysis. We also build a new quantitative feature based on adaptive logistic regression for online learning, which is constantly selected first among the majority of the proposed feature selection methods. This study examines the best combination of features using high frequency limit order book data from Nasdaq Nordic. Our results suggest that sorting methods and classifiers can be used in such a way that one can reach the best performance with a combination of only very few advanced hand-crafted features.
Few assets in financial history have been as notoriously volatile as cryptocurrencies. While the long term outlook for this asset class remains unclear, we are successful in making short term price predictions for several major crypto assets. Using historical data from July 2015 to November 2019, we develop a large number of technical indicators to capture patterns in the cryptocurrency market. We then test various classification methods to forecast short-term future price movements based on these indicators. On both PPV and NPV metrics, our classifiers do well in identifying up and down market moves over the next 1 hour. Beyond evaluating classification accuracy, we also develop a strategy for translating 1-hour-ahead class predictions into trading decisions, along with a backtester that simulates trading in a realistic environment. We find that support vector machines yield the most profitable trading strategies, which outperform the market on average for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin over the past 22 months, since January 2018.
Technical analysis is used to discover investment opportunities. To test this hypothesis we propose an hybrid system using machine learning techniques together with genetic algorithms. Using technical analysis there are more ways to represent a currency exchange time series than the ones it is possible to test computationally, i.e., it is unfeasible to search the whole input feature space thus a genetic algorithm is an alternative. In this work, an architecture for automatic feature selection is proposed to optimize the cross validated performance estimation of a Naive Bayes model using a genetic algorithm. The proposed architecture improves the return on investment of the unoptimized system from 0,43% to 10,29% in the validation set. The features selected and the model decision boundary are visualized using the algorithm t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor embedding.
The demand of metals by modern technology has been shifting from common base metals to a variety of minor metals, such as cobalt or indium. The industrial importance and limited geological availability of some minor metals have led to them being considered more "critical," and there is a growing interest in such critical metals and their producing companies. In this research, we create a novel framework, Dynamic Advisor-Based Ensemble (dynABE), to predict the stock trend of major critical metal producers. Specifically, dynABE first utilizes domain knowledge to group the features into different "advisors," each advisor dealing with a particular economic sector. Then through ensembles of weak classifiers, each advisor produces a prediction result, and all the advisors are combined again in a biased online update fashion to dynamically make the final prediction. Based on a misclassification error of 32% for Jinchuan Group's stock (HKG: 2362), we further test a simple stock trading strategy, which leads to a back-tested return of 296%, or an excess return of 130% within one year. In addition, the feature set selected by dynABE also suggests potentially influential factors to metal criticality, because stock prices of major producers influence metal production. Therefore, not only does this research propose a novel framework for specialized stock trend prediction, it also provides domain insights into dynamic features that potentially influence metal criticality.