### Probability and Statistics explained in the context of deep learning

This article is intended for beginners in deep learning who wish to gain knowledge about probability and statistics and also as a reference for practitioners. In my previous article, I wrote about the concepts of linear algebra for deep learning in a top down approach ( link for the article) (If you do not have enough idea about linear algebra, please read that first).The same top down approach is used here.Providing the description of use cases first and then the concepts. All the example code uses python and numpy.Formulas are provided as images for reuse. Probability is the science of quantifying uncertain things.Most of machine learning and deep learning systems utilize a lot of data to learn about patterns in the data.Whenever data is utilized in a system rather than sole logic, uncertainty grows up and whenever uncertainty grows up, probability becomes relevant. By introducing probability to a deep learning system, we introduce common sense to the system.Otherwise the system would be very brittle and will not be useful.In deep learning, several models like bayesian models, probabilistic graphical models, hidden markov models are used.They depend entirely on probability concepts.

### Gaussian-binary Restricted Boltzmann Machines on Modeling Natural Image Statistics

We present a theoretical analysis of Gaussian-binary restricted Boltzmann machines (GRBMs) from the perspective of density models. The key aspect of this analysis is to show that GRBMs can be formulated as a constrained mixture of Gaussians, which gives a much better insight into the model's capabilities and limitations. We show that GRBMs are capable of learning meaningful features both in a two-dimensional blind source separation task and in modeling natural images. Further, we show that reported difficulties in training GRBMs are due to the failure of the training algorithm rather than the model itself. Based on our analysis we are able to propose several training recipes, which allowed successful and fast training in our experiments. Finally, we discuss the relationship of GRBMs to several modifications that have been proposed to improve the model.

### MCMC for Hierarchical Semi-Markov Conditional Random Fields

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs are prohibitive for large-scale problems with arbitrary length and depth. In this contribution, we propose a new approximation technique that may have the potential to achieve sub-cubic time complexity in length and linear time depth, at the cost of some loss of quality. The idea is based on two well-known methods: Gibbs sampling and Rao-Blackwellisation. We provide some simulation-based evaluation of the quality of the RGBS with respect to run time and sequence length.

### Discrete Restricted Boltzmann Machines

We describe discrete restricted Boltzmann machines: probabilistic graphical models with bipartite interactions between visible and hidden discrete variables. Examples are binary restricted Boltzmann machines and discrete naive Bayes models. We detail the inference functions and distributed representations arising in these models in terms of configurations of projected products of simplices and normal fans of products of simplices. We bound the number of hidden variables, depending on the cardinalities of their state spaces, for which these models can approximate any probability distribution on their visible states to any given accuracy. In addition, we use algebraic methods and coding theory to compute their dimension.

### Properties and Bayesian fitting of restricted Boltzmann machines

A restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is an undirected graphical model constructed for discrete or continuous random variables, with two layers, one hidden and one visible, and no conditional dependency within a layer. In recent years, RBMs have risen to prominence due to their connection to deep learning. By treating a hidden layer of one RBM as the visible layer in a second RBM, a deep architecture can be created. RBMs are thought to thereby have the ability to encode very complex and rich structures in data, making them attractive for supervised learning. However, the generative behavior of RBMs is largely unexplored. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between RBM parameter specification in the binary case and model properties such as degeneracy, instability and uninterpretability. We also describe the difficulties that arise in likelihood-based and Bayes fitting of such (highly flexible) models, especially as Gibbs sampling (quasi-Bayes) methods are often advocated for the RBM model structure.