Reading the Behavior Signature: Predicting Leader Personality from Individual and Group Actions

AAAI Conferences

The personality of a leader can be used to predict that leader's actions as well as those of the group that he or she leads. However, except for a small number of well-known leaders, the personality of leaders must be inferred from actions and other evidence. We have developed a Bayesian network to infer leader personality variables related to violence from evidence of leader and group actions and the situational demands and context in which the actions occur. The network was applied to a historical situation, and its ability to distinguish extreme personalities was established.


On the Theory and Practice of Privacy-Preserving Bayesian Data Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian inference has great promise for the privacy-preserving analysis of sensitive data, as posterior sampling automatically preserves differential privacy, an algorithmic notion of data privacy, under certain conditions (Dimitrakakis et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015). While this one posterior sample (OPS) approach elegantly provides privacy "for free," it is data inefficient in the sense of asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE). We show that a simple alternative based on the Laplace mechanism, the workhorse of differential privacy, is as asymptotically efficient as non-private posterior inference, under general assumptions. This technique also has practical advantages including efficient use of the privacy budget for MCMC. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach on a time-series analysis of sensitive military records from the Afghanistan and Iraq wars disclosed by the Wikileaks organization.


Spatial Modeling of Oil Exploration Areas Using Neural Networks and ANFIS in GIS

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exploration of hydrocarbon resources is a highly complicated and expensive process where various geological, geochemical and geophysical factors are developed then combined together. It is highly significant how to design the seismic data acquisition survey and locate the exploratory wells since incorrect or imprecise locations lead to waste of time and money during the operation. The objective of this study is to locate high-potential oil and gas field in 1: 250,000 sheet of Ahwaz including 20 oil fields to reduce both time and costs in exploration and production processes. In this regard, 17 maps were developed using GIS functions for factors including: minimum and maximum of total organic carbon (TOC), yield potential for hydrocarbons production (PP), Tmax peak, production index (PI), oxygen index (OI), hydrogen index (HI) as well as presence or proximity to high residual Bouguer gravity anomalies, proximity to anticline axis and faults, topography and curvature maps obtained from Asmari Formation subsurface contours. To model and to integrate maps, this study employed artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) methods. The results obtained from model validation demonstrated that the 17x10x5 neural network with R=0.8948, RMS=0.0267, and kappa=0.9079 can be trained better than other models such as ANFIS and predicts the potential areas more accurately. However, this method failed to predict some oil fields and wrongly predict some areas as potential zones.


Rock mechanics modeling based on soft granulation theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes application of information granulation theory, on the design of rock engineering flowcharts. Firstly, an overall flowchart, based on information granulation theory has been highlighted. Information granulation theory, in crisp (non-fuzzy) or fuzzy format, can take into account engineering experiences (especially in fuzzy shape-incomplete information or superfluous), or engineering judgments, in each step of designing procedure, while the suitable instruments modeling are employed. In this manner and to extension of soft modeling instruments, using three combinations of Self Organizing Map (SOM), Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS), and Rough Set Theory (RST) crisp and fuzzy granules, from monitored data sets are obtained. The main underlined core of our algorithms are balancing of crisp(rough or non-fuzzy) granules and sub fuzzy granules, within non fuzzy information (initial granulation) upon the open-close iterations. Using different criteria on balancing best granules (information pockets), are obtained. Validations of our proposed methods, on the data set of in-situ permeability in rock masses in Shivashan dam, Iran have been highlighted.


Graphical Estimation of Permeability Using RST&NFIS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper pursues some applications of Rough Set Theory (RST) and neural-fuzzy model to analysis of "lugeon data". In the manner, using Self Organizing Map (SOM) as a pre-processing the data are scaled and then the dominant rules by RST, are elicited. Based on these rules variations of permeability in the different levels of Shivashan dam, Iran has been highlighted. Then, via using a combining of SOM and an adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) another analysis on the data was carried out. Finally, a brief comparison between the obtained results of RST and SOM-NFIS (briefly SONFIS) has been rendered.