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Online Parameter Estimation for Human Driver Behavior Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Driver models are invaluable for planning in autonomous vehicles as well as validating their safety in simulation. Highly parameterized black-box driver models are very expressive, and can capture nuanced behavior. However, they usually lack interpretability and sometimes exhibit unrealistic-even dangerous-behavior. Rule-based models are interpretable, and can be designed to guarantee "safe" behavior, but are less expressive due to their low number of parameters. In this article, we show that online parameter estimation applied to the Intelligent Driver Model captures nuanced individual driving behavior while providing collision free trajectories. We solve the online parameter estimation problem using particle filtering, and benchmark performance against rule-based and black-box driver models on two real world driving data sets. We evaluate the closeness of our driver model to ground truth data demonstration and also assess the safety of the resulting emergent driving behavior.


Multi-modal Probabilistic Prediction of Interactive Behavior via an Interpretable Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For autonomous agents to successfully operate in real world, the ability to anticipate future motions of surrounding entities in the scene can greatly enhance their safety levels since potentially dangerous situations could be avoided in advance. While impressive results have been shown on predicting each agent's behavior independently, we argue that it is not valid to consider road entities individually since transitions of vehicle states are highly coupled. Moreover, as the predicted horizon becomes longer, modeling prediction uncertainties and multi-modal distributions over future sequences will turn into a more challenging task. In this paper, we address this challenge by presenting a multi-modal probabilistic prediction approach. The proposed method is based on a generative model and is capable of jointly predicting sequential motions of each pair of interacting agents. Most importantly, our model is interpretable, which can explain the underneath logic as well as obtain more reliability to use in real applications. A complicate real-world roundabout scenario is utilized to implement and examine the proposed method.


A Survey on Autonomous Vehicle Control in the Era of Mixed-Autonomy: From Physics-Based to AI-Guided Driving Policy Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper serves as an introduction and overview of the potentially useful models and methodologies from artificial intelligence (AI) into the field of transportation engineering for autonomous vehicle (AV) control in the era of mixed autonomy. We will discuss state-of-the-art applications of AI-guided methods, identify opportunities and obstacles, raise open questions, and help suggest the building blocks and areas where AI could play a role in mixed autonomy. We divide the stage of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment into four phases: the pure HVs, the HV-dominated, the AVdominated, and the pure AVs. This paper is primarily focused on the latter three phases. It is the first-of-its-kind survey paper to comprehensively review literature in both transportation engineering and AI for mixed traffic modeling. Models used for each phase are summarized, encompassing game theory, deep (reinforcement) learning, and imitation learning. While reviewing the methodologies, we primarily focus on the following research questions: (1) What scalable driving policies are to control a large number of AVs in mixed traffic comprised of human drivers and uncontrollable AVs? (2) How do we estimate human driver behaviors? (3) How should the driving behavior of uncontrollable AVs be modeled in the environment? (4) How are the interactions between human drivers and autonomous vehicles characterized? Hopefully this paper will not only inspire our transportation community to rethink the conventional models that are developed in the data-shortage era, but also reach out to other disciplines, in particular robotics and machine learning, to join forces towards creating a safe and efficient mixed traffic ecosystem.


Intention-aware Long Horizon Trajectory Prediction of Surrounding Vehicles using Dual LSTM Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As autonomous vehicles (AVs) need to interact with other road users, it is of importance to comprehensively understand the dynamic traffic environment, especially the future possible trajectories of surrounding vehicles. This paper presents an algorithm for long-horizon trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles using a dual long short term memory (LSTM) network, which is capable of effectively improving prediction accuracy in strongly interactive driving environments. In contrast to traditional approaches which require trajectory matching and manual feature selection, this method can automatically learn high-level spatial-temporal features of driver behaviors from naturalistic driving data through sequence learning. By employing two blocks of LSTMs, the proposed method feeds the sequential trajectory to the first LSTM for driver intention recognition as an intermediate indicator, which is immediately followed by a second LSTM for future trajectory prediction. Test results from real-world highway driving data show that the proposed method can, in comparison to state-of-art methods, output more accurate and reasonable estimate of different future trajectories over 5s time horizon with root mean square error (RMSE) for longitudinal and lateral prediction less than 5.77m and 0.49m, respectively.


Generic Probabilistic Interactive Situation Recognition and Prediction: From Virtual to Real

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate and robust recognition and prediction of traffic situation plays an important role in autonomous driving, which is a prerequisite for risk assessment and effective decision making. Although there exist a lot of works dealing with modeling driver behavior of a single object, it remains a challenge to make predictions for multiple highly interactive agents that react to each other simultaneously. In this work, we propose a generic probabilistic hierarchical recognition and prediction framework which employs a two-layer Hidden Markov Model (TLHMM) to obtain the distribution of potential situations and a learning-based dynamic scene evolution model to sample a group of future trajectories. Instead of predicting motions of a single entity, we propose to get the joint distribution by modeling multiple interactive agents as a whole system. Moreover, due to the decoupling property of the layered structure, our model is suitable for knowledge transfer from simulation to real world applications as well as among different traffic scenarios, which can reduce the computational efforts of training and the demand for a large data amount. A case study of highway ramp merging scenario is demonstrated to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed framework.