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Potential Passenger Flow Prediction: A Novel Study for Urban Transportation Development

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, practical applications for passenger flow prediction have brought many benefits to urban transportation development. With the development of urbanization, a real-world demand from transportation managers is to construct a new metro station in one city area that never planned before. Authorities are interested in the picture of the future volume of commuters before constructing a new station, and estimate how would it affect other areas. In this paper, this specific problem is termed as potential passenger flow (PPF) prediction, which is a novel and important study connected with urban computing and intelligent transportation systems. For example, an accurate PPF predictor can provide invaluable knowledge to designers, such as the advice of station scales and influences on other areas, etc. To address this problem, we propose a multi-view localized correlation learning method. The core idea of our strategy is to learn the passenger flow correlations between the target areas and their localized areas with adaptive-weight. To improve the prediction accuracy, other domain knowledge is involved via a multi-view learning process. We conduct intensive experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of our method with real-world official transportation datasets. The results demonstrate that our method can achieve excellent performance compared with other available baselines. Besides, our method can provide an effective solution to the cold-start problem in the recommender system as well, which proved by its outperformed experimental results.


Multimodal Trajectory Prediction via Topological Invariance for Navigation at Uncontrolled Intersections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread interest in autonomous driving technology in recent years [2] has motivated extensive research in multiagent navigation in driving domains. One of the most challenging driving domains [3] is the uncontrolled intersection, i.e., a street intersection that features no traffic signs or signals. Within this domain, we focus on scenarios in which agents do not communicate explicitly or implicitly through e.g., turn signals. This model setup gives rise to challenging multi-vehicle encounters that mimic real-world situations (arising due to human distraction, violation of traffic rules or special emergencies) that result in fatal accidents [3]. The frequency and severity of such situations has motivated vivid research interest in uncontrolled intersections [4, 5, 6]. In the absence of explicit traffic signs, signals, rules or explicit communication among agents, avoiding collisions at intersections relies on the ability of agents to predict the dynamics of interaction amongst themselves. One prevalent way to model multiagent dynamics is via trajectory prediction. However, multistep multiagent trajectory prediction is NPhard [7], whereas the sample complexity of existing learning algorithms effectively prohibits the extraction of practical models. Our key insight is that the geometric structure of the intersection and the incentive of agents to move efficiently and avoid collisions with each other (rationality) compress the space of possible multiagent trajectories, effectively simplifying inference.


Multi-Fidelity Recursive Behavior Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting the behavior of surrounding vehicles is a critical problem in automated driving. We present a novel game theoretic behavior prediction model that achieves state of the art prediction accuracy by explicitly reasoning about possible future interaction between agents. We evaluate our approach on the NGSIM vehicle trajectory data set and demonstrate lower root mean square error than state-of-the-art methods.


Diversity-Aware Vehicle Motion Prediction via Latent Semantic Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--V ehicle trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving and advanced driver assistant systems. While existing approaches may sample from a predicted distribution of vehicle trajectories, they lack the ability to explore it - a key ability for evaluating safety from a planning and verification perspective. In this work, we devise a novel approach for generating realistic and diverse vehicle trajectories. We extend the generative adversarial network (GAN) framework with a low-dimensional approximate semantic space, and shape that space to capture semantics such as merging and turning. We sample from this space in a way that mimics the predicted distribution, but allows us to control coverage of semantically distinct outcomes. We validate our approach on a publicly available dataset and show results that achieve state of the art prediction performance, while providing improved coverage of the space of predicted trajectory semantics. V ehicle trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving and advanced driver assistant systems.


Adaptive pooling operators for weakly labeled sound event detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sound event detection (SED) methods are tasked with labeling segments of audio recordings by the presence of active sound sources. SED is typically posed as a supervised machine learning problem, requiring strong annotations for the presence or absence of each sound source at every time instant within the recording. However, strong annotations of this type are both labor- and cost-intensive for human annotators to produce, which limits the practical scalability of SED methods. In this work, we treat SED as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem, where training labels are static over a short excerpt, indicating the presence or absence of sound sources but not their temporal locality. The models, however, must still produce temporally dynamic predictions, which must be aggregated (pooled) when comparing against static labels during training. To facilitate this aggregation, we develop a family of adaptive pooling operators---referred to as auto-pool---which smoothly interpolate between common pooling operators, such as min-, max-, or average-pooling, and automatically adapt to the characteristics of the sound sources in question. We evaluate the proposed pooling operators on three datasets, and demonstrate that in each case, the proposed methods outperform non-adaptive pooling operators for static prediction, and nearly match the performance of models trained with strong, dynamic annotations. The proposed method is evaluated in conjunction with convolutional neural networks, but can be readily applied to any differentiable model for time-series label prediction.