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A Bayesian Framework for Modeling Confidence in Perceptual Decision Making

Neural Information Processing Systems

The degree of confidence in one's choice or decision is a critical aspect of perceptual decisionmaking. Attempts to quantify a decision maker's confidence by measuring accuracy in a task have yielded limited success because confidence and accuracy are typically not equal. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework to model confidence in perceptual decision making. We show that this model, based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), is able to predict confidence of a decision maker based only on the data available to the experimenter. We test our model on two experiments on confidence-based decision makinginvolving the well-known random dots motion discrimination task. In both experiments, we show that our model's predictions closely match experimental data.Additionally, our model is also consistent with other phenomena such as the hard-easy effect in perceptual decision making.


A Negation Quantum Decision Model to Predict the Interference Effect in Categorization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Categorization is a significant task in decision-making, which is a key part of human behavior. An interference effect is caused by categorization in some cases, which breaks the total probability principle. A negation quantum model (NQ model) is developed in this article to predict the interference. Taking the advantage of negation to bring more information in the distribution from a different perspective, the proposed model is a combination of the negation of a probability distribution and the quantum decision model. Information of the phase contained in quantum probability and the special calculation method to it can easily represented the interference effect. The results of the proposed NQ model is closely to the real experiment data and has less error than the existed models.


Automata Modeling for Cognitive Interference in Users' Relevance Judgment

AAAI Conferences

Quantum theory has recently been employed to further advance thetheory of information retrieval (IR). A challenging research topicis to investigate the so called quantum-like interference in users'relevance judgment process, where users are involved to judge therelevance degree of each document with respect to a given query. Inthis process, users' relevance judgment for the current document isoften interfered by the judgment for previous documents, due to theinterference on users' cognitive status. Research from cognitivescience has demonstrated some initial evidence of quantum-likecognitive interference in human decision making, which underpins theuser's relevance judgment process. This motivates us to model suchcognitive interference in the relevance judgment process, which inour belief will lead to a better modeling and explanation of userbehaviors in relevance judgement process for IR and eventually leadto more user-centric IR models. In this paper, we propose to useprobabilistic automaton (PA) and quantum finite automaton (QFA),which are suitable to represent the transition of user judgmentstates, to dynamically model the cognitive interference when theuser is judging a list of documents.


QuLBIT: Quantum-Like Bayesian Inference Technologies for Cognition and Decision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides the foundations of a unified cognitive decision-making framework (QulBIT) which is derived from quantum theory. The main advantage of this framework is that it can cater for paradoxical and irrational human decision making. Although quantum approaches for cognition have demonstrated advantages over classical probabilistic approaches and bounded rationality models, they still lack explanatory power. To address this, we introduce a novel explanatory analysis of the decision-maker's belief space. This is achieved by exploiting quantum interference effects as a way of both quantifying and explaining the decision-maker's uncertainty. We detail the main modules of the unified framework, the explanatory analysis method, and illustrate their application in situations violating the Sure Thing Principle.


Order Effects in Bayesian Updates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the literature that supports evidence of order effects. We proposed a Bayesian update model for order effects where each question can be thought of as a mini-experiment where the respondents reflect on their beliefs. We showed that order effects appear, and they have a simple cognitive explanation: the respondent's prior belief that two questions are correlated. The proposed Bayesian model allows us to make several predictions: (1) we found certain conditions on the priors that limit the existence of order effects; (2) we show that, for our model, the QQ equality is not necessarily satisfied (due to symmetry assumptions); and (3) the proposed Bayesian model has the advantage of possessing fewer parameters than its quantum counterpart.