A churn prediction system guides telecom service providers to reduce revenue loss. Development of a churn prediction system for a telecom industry is a challenging task, mainly due to size of the data, high dimensional features, and imbalanced distribution of the data. In this paper, we focus on a novel solution to the inherent problems of churn prediction, using the concept of Transfer Learning (TL) and Ensemble-based Meta-Classification. The proposed method TL-DeepE is applied in two stages. The first stage employs TL by fine tuning multiple pre-trained Deep Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). Telecom datasets are in vector form, which is converted into 2D images because Deep CNNs have high learning capacity on images. In the second stage, predictions from these Deep CNNs are appended to the original feature vector and thus are used to build a final feature vector for the high-level Genetic Programming and AdaBoost based ensemble classifier. Thus, the experiments are conducted using various CNNs as base classifiers with the contribution of high-level GP-AdaBoost ensemble classifier, and the results achieved are as an average of the outcomes. By using 10-fold cross-validation, the performance of the proposed TL-DeepE system is compared with existing techniques, for two standard telecommunication datasets; Orange and Cell2cell. In experimental result, the prediction accuracy for Orange and Cell2cell datasets were as 75.4% and 68.2% and a score of the area under the curve as 0.83 and 0.74, respectively.
We have some algorithm that's given a handful of labeled examples, say 10 images of dogs with the label 1 ("Dog") and 10 images of other things with the label 0 ("Not dog")--note that we're mainly sticking to supervised, binary classification for this post. The algorithm "learns" to identify images of dogs and, when fed a new image, hopes to produce the correct label (1 if it's an image of a dog, and 0 otherwise). We have some algorithm that's given a handful of labeled examples, say 10 images of dogs with the label 1 ("Dog") and 10 images of other things with the label 0 ("Not dog")--note that we're mainly sticking to supervised, binary classification for this post. The algorithm "learns" to identify images of dogs and, when fed a new image, hopes to produce the correct label (1 if it's an image of a dog, and 0 otherwise). This setting is incredibly general: your data could be symptoms and your labels illnesses; or your data could be images of handwritten characters and your labels the actual characters they represent.
First of all it's important to underline why this problem is so important today, and therefore why it is very interesting to understand the role and the potential of Deep Learning in this sector. During the last years, Time Series Classification has become one of the most challenging problems in Data Science. This has happened because any classification problem that uses data keeping in consideration some notion of sorting, can be treated as a Time Series Classification problem. Time series are present in many real-world applications ranging from health care, human activity recognition, cyber-security, finance, marketing, automated disease detection, anomaly detection, etc. As the availability of temporal data has increased significantly in the last years, many areas are becoming strongly interested in applications based on time series, and then many new algorithms have been proposed. All these algorithms, apart from those based on deep learning, require some kind of feature engineering as a separate task before the classification is performed, and this can imply the loss of some information and the increase of the development time. On the contrary, deep learning models already incorporate this kind of feature engineering internally, optimizing it and eliminating the need to do it manually.
We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features.