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Arterial incident duration prediction using a bi-level framework of extreme gradient-tree boosting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract: Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predict whether a new incident will be cleared in less than 45min or not. If the incident was classified as short-term, then various regression models are developed for predicting the actual incident duration in minutes by incorporating various traffic flow features. After outlier removal and intensive model hyper-parameter tuning through randomized search and cross-validation, we show that the extreme gradient boost approach outperformed all models, including the gradient-boosted decision-trees by almost 53%. Finally, we perform a feature importance evaluation for incident duration prediction and show that the best prediction results are obtained when leveraging the real-time traffic flow in vicinity road sections to the reported accident location. Initial methods used to predict the incident duration were 1. Introduction Bayesian classifiers [5], discrete choice models (DCM) [6], probabilistic distribution analyses [7], and the hazard-based Traffic congestion is a major concern for many cities duration models (HBDM) [8].


Accident Risk Prediction based on Heterogeneous Sparse Data: New Dataset and Insights

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.


Credit risk prediction in an imbalanced social lending environment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for social lending consider imbalanced data and, further, the best resampling technique to use with imbalanced data is still controversial. In an attempt to address these problems, this paper presents an empirical comparison of various combinations of classifiers and resampling techniques within a novel risk assessment methodology that incorporates imbalanced data. The credit predictions from each combination are evaluated with a G-mean measure to avoid bias towards the majority class, which has not been considered in similar studies. The results reveal that combining random forest and random under-sampling may be an effective strategy for calculating the credit risk associated with loan applicants in social lending markets.


Bagging and Random Forest for Imbalanced Classification

#artificialintelligence

Bagging is an ensemble algorithm that fits multiple models on different subsets of a training dataset, then combines the predictions from all models. Random forest is an extension of bagging that also randomly selects subsets of features used in each data sample. Both bagging and random forests have proven effective on a wide range of different predictive modeling problems. Although effective, they are not suited to classification problems with a skewed class distribution. Nevertheless, many modifications to the algorithms have been proposed that adapt their behavior and make them better suited to a severe class imbalance. In this tutorial, you will discover how to use bagging and random forest for imbalanced classification.


Impact of Narrow Lanes on Arterial Road Vehicle Crashes: A Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we adopted state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, namely: random forest (RF) and least squares boosting, to model crash data and identify the optimum model to study the impact of narrow lanes on the safety of arterial roads. Using a ten-year crash dataset in four cities in Nebraska, two machine learning models were assessed based on the prediction error. The RF model was identified as the best model. The RF was used to compute the importance of the lane width predictors in our regression model based on two different measures. Subsequently, the RF model was used to simulate the crash rate for different lane widths. The Kruskal-Wallis test, was then conducted to determine if simulated values from the four lane width groups have equal means. The test null hypothesis of equal means for simulated values from the four lane width groups was rejected. Consequently, it was concluded that the crash rates from at least one lane width group was statistically different from the others. Finally, the results from the pairwise comparisons using the Tukey and Kramer test showed that the changes in crash rates between any two lane width conditions were statistically significant.