Conditional Flow Variational Autoencoders for Structured Sequence Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Prediction of future states of the environment and interacting agents is a key competence required for autonomous agents to operate successfully in the real world. Prior work for structured sequence prediction based on latent variable models imposes a uni-modal standard Gaussian prior on the latent variables. This induces a strong model bias which makes it challenging to fully capture the multi-modality of the distribution of the future states. In this work, we introduce Conditional Flow Variational Autoencoders which uses our novel conditional normalizing flow based prior. We show that using our novel complex multi-modal conditional prior we can capture complex multi-modal conditional distributions. Furthermore, we study for the first time latent variable collapse with normalizing flows and propose solutions to prevent such failure cases. Our experiments on three multi-modal structured sequence prediction datasets -- MNIST Sequences, Stanford Drone and HighD -- show that the proposed method obtains state of art results across different evaluation metrics.


Back to square one: probabilistic trajectory forecasting without bells and whistles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a spatio-temporal convolutional neural network model for trajectory forecasting from visual sources. Applied in an auto-regressive way it provides an explicit probability distribution over continuations of a given initial trajectory segment. We discuss it in relation to (more complicated) existing work and report on experiments on two standard datasets for trajectory forecasting: MNISTseq and Stanford Drones, achieving results on-par with or better than previous methods.


Modeling continuous-time stochastic processes using $\mathcal{N}$-Curve mixtures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this context the model must be able to capture the multi-modal nature of the data, without blurring between modes. This property is essential for applications like trajectory prediction or human motion modeling. Towards this end, a neural network model for continuous-time stochastic processes usable for sequence prediction is proposed. The model is based on Mixture Density Networks using B\'ezier curves with Gaussian random variables as control points (abbrev.: $\mathcal{N}$-Curves). Key advantages of the model include the ability of generating smooth multi-mode predictions in a single inference step which reduces the need for Monte Carlo simulation, as required in many multi-step prediction models, based on state-of-the-art neural networks. Essential properties of the proposed approach are illustrated by several toy examples and the task of multi-step sequence prediction. Further, the model performance is evaluated on two real world use-cases, i.e. human trajectory prediction and human motion modeling, outperforming different state-of-the-art models.


Multi-modal Probabilistic Prediction of Interactive Behavior via an Interpretable Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For autonomous agents to successfully operate in real world, the ability to anticipate future motions of surrounding entities in the scene can greatly enhance their safety levels since potentially dangerous situations could be avoided in advance. While impressive results have been shown on predicting each agent's behavior independently, we argue that it is not valid to consider road entities individually since transitions of vehicle states are highly coupled. Moreover, as the predicted horizon becomes longer, modeling prediction uncertainties and multi-modal distributions over future sequences will turn into a more challenging task. In this paper, we address this challenge by presenting a multi-modal probabilistic prediction approach. The proposed method is based on a generative model and is capable of jointly predicting sequential motions of each pair of interacting agents. Most importantly, our model is interpretable, which can explain the underneath logic as well as obtain more reliability to use in real applications. A complicate real-world roundabout scenario is utilized to implement and examine the proposed method.


Learning Structured Output Representation using Deep Conditional Generative Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Supervised deep learning has been successfully applied for many recognition problems in machine learning and computer vision. Although it can approximate a complex many-to-one function very well when large number of training data is provided, the lack of probabilistic inference of the current supervised deep learning methods makes it difficult to model a complex structured output representations. In this work, we develop a scalable deep conditional generative model for structured output variables using Gaussian latent variables. The model is trained efficiently in the framework of stochastic gradient variational Bayes, and allows a fast prediction using stochastic feed-forward inference. In addition, we provide novel strategies to build a robust structured prediction algorithms, such as recurrent prediction network architecture, input noise-injection and multi-scale prediction training methods. In experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in comparison to the deterministic deep neural network counterparts in generating diverse but realistic output representations using stochastic inference. Furthermore, the proposed schemes in training methods and architecture design were complimentary, which leads to achieve strong pixel-level object segmentation and semantic labeling performance on Caltech-UCSD Birds 200 and the subset of Labeled Faces in the Wild dataset.