Infusing domain knowledge in AI-based "black box" models for better explainability with application in bankruptcy prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although "black box" models such as Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Ensemble Approaches continue to show superior performance in many disciplines, their adoption in the sensitive disciplines (e.g., finance, healthcare) is questionable due to the lack of interpretability and explainability of the model. In fact, future adoption of "black box" models is difficult because of the recent rule of "right of explanation" by the European Union where a user can ask for an explanation behind an algorithmic decision, and the newly proposed bill by the US government, the "Algorithmic Accountability Act", which would require companies to assess their machine learning systems for bias and discrimination and take corrective measures. Top Bankruptcy Prediction Models are A.I.-based and are in need of better explainability -the extent to which the internal working mechanisms of an AI system can be explained in human terms. Although explainable artificial intelligence is an emerging field of research, infusing domain knowledge for better explainability might be a possible solution. In this work, we demonstrate a way to collect and infuse domain knowledge into a "black box" model for bankruptcy prediction. Our understanding from the experiments reveals that infused domain knowledge makes the output from the black box model more interpretable and explainable.


Credit risk prediction in an imbalanced social lending environment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for social lending consider imbalanced data and, further, the best resampling technique to use with imbalanced data is still controversial. In an attempt to address these problems, this paper presents an empirical comparison of various combinations of classifiers and resampling techniques within a novel risk assessment methodology that incorporates imbalanced data. The credit predictions from each combination are evaluated with a G-mean measure to avoid bias towards the majority class, which has not been considered in similar studies. The results reveal that combining random forest and random under-sampling may be an effective strategy for calculating the credit risk associated with loan applicants in social lending markets.


Oversampling for Imbalanced Learning Based on K-Means and SMOTE

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning from class-imbalanced data continues to be a common and challenging problem in supervised learning as standard classification algorithms are designed to handle balanced class distributions. While different strategies exist to tackle this problem, methods which generate artificial data to achieve a balanced class distribution are more versatile than modifications to the classification algorithm. Such techniques, called oversamplers, modify the training data, allowing any classifier to be used with class-imbalanced datasets. Many algorithms have been proposed for this task, but most are complex and tend to generate unnecessary noise. This work presents a simple and effective oversampling method based on k-means clustering and SMOTE oversampling, which avoids the generation of noise and effectively overcomes imbalances between and within classes. Empirical results of extensive experiments with 71 datasets show that training data oversampled with the proposed method improves classification results. Moreover, k-means SMOTE consistently outperforms other popular oversampling methods. An implementation is made available in the python programming language.


Predicting class-imbalanced business risk using resampling, regularization, and model ensembling algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We aim at developing and improving the imbalanced business risk modeling via jointly using proper evaluation criteria, resampling, cross-validation, classifier regularization, and ensembling techniques. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC of ROC) is used for model comparison based on 10-fold cross validation. Two undersampling strategies including random undersampling (RUS) and cluster centroid undersampling (CCUS), as well as two oversampling methods including random oversampling (ROS) and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), are applied. Three highly interpretable classifiers, including logistic regression without regularization (LR), L1-regularized LR (L1LR), and decision tree (DT) are implemented. Two ensembling techniques, including Bagging and Boosting, are applied on the DT classifier for further model improvement. The results show that, Boosting on DT by using the oversampled data containing 50% positives via SMOTE is the optimal model and it can achieve AUC, recall, and F1 score valued 0.8633, 0.9260, and 0.8907, respectively.


Wide and Deep Learning for Peer-to-Peer Lending

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes a two-stage scoring approach to help lenders decide their fund allocations in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. The existing scoring approaches focus on only either probability of default (PD) prediction, known as credit scoring, or profitability prediction, known as profit scoring, to identify the best loans for investment. Credit scoring fails to deliver the main need of lenders on how much profit they may obtain through their investment. On the other hand, profit scoring can satisfy that need by predicting the investment profitability. However, profit scoring completely ignores the class imbalance problem where most of the past loans are non-default. Consequently, ignorance of the class imbalance problem significantly affects the accuracy of profitability prediction. Our proposed two-stage scoring approach is an integration of credit scoring and profit scoring to address the above challenges. More specifically, stage 1 is designed as credit scoring to identify non-default loans while the imbalanced nature of loan status is considered in PD prediction. The loans identified as non-default are then moved to stage 2 for prediction of profitability, measured by internal rate of return. Wide and deep learning is used to build the predictive models in both stages to achieve both memorization and generalization. Extensive numerical studies are conducted based on real-world data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The numerical studies indicate our two-stage scoring approach outperforms the existing credit scoring and profit scoring approaches.