Spatial Modeling of Oil Exploration Areas Using Neural Networks and ANFIS in GIS

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exploration of hydrocarbon resources is a highly complicated and expensive process where various geological, geochemical and geophysical factors are developed then combined together. It is highly significant how to design the seismic data acquisition survey and locate the exploratory wells since incorrect or imprecise locations lead to waste of time and money during the operation. The objective of this study is to locate high-potential oil and gas field in 1: 250,000 sheet of Ahwaz including 20 oil fields to reduce both time and costs in exploration and production processes. In this regard, 17 maps were developed using GIS functions for factors including: minimum and maximum of total organic carbon (TOC), yield potential for hydrocarbons production (PP), Tmax peak, production index (PI), oxygen index (OI), hydrogen index (HI) as well as presence or proximity to high residual Bouguer gravity anomalies, proximity to anticline axis and faults, topography and curvature maps obtained from Asmari Formation subsurface contours. To model and to integrate maps, this study employed artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) methods. The results obtained from model validation demonstrated that the 17x10x5 neural network with R=0.8948, RMS=0.0267, and kappa=0.9079 can be trained better than other models such as ANFIS and predicts the potential areas more accurately. However, this method failed to predict some oil fields and wrongly predict some areas as potential zones.


Graphical Estimation of Permeability Using RST&NFIS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper pursues some applications of Rough Set Theory (RST) and neural-fuzzy model to analysis of "lugeon data". In the manner, using Self Organizing Map (SOM) as a pre-processing the data are scaled and then the dominant rules by RST, are elicited. Based on these rules variations of permeability in the different levels of Shivashan dam, Iran has been highlighted. Then, via using a combining of SOM and an adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) another analysis on the data was carried out. Finally, a brief comparison between the obtained results of RST and SOM-NFIS (briefly SONFIS) has been rendered.


Rock mechanics modeling based on soft granulation theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes application of information granulation theory, on the design of rock engineering flowcharts. Firstly, an overall flowchart, based on information granulation theory has been highlighted. Information granulation theory, in crisp (non-fuzzy) or fuzzy format, can take into account engineering experiences (especially in fuzzy shape-incomplete information or superfluous), or engineering judgments, in each step of designing procedure, while the suitable instruments modeling are employed. In this manner and to extension of soft modeling instruments, using three combinations of Self Organizing Map (SOM), Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS), and Rough Set Theory (RST) crisp and fuzzy granules, from monitored data sets are obtained. The main underlined core of our algorithms are balancing of crisp(rough or non-fuzzy) granules and sub fuzzy granules, within non fuzzy information (initial granulation) upon the open-close iterations. Using different criteria on balancing best granules (information pockets), are obtained. Validations of our proposed methods, on the data set of in-situ permeability in rock masses in Shivashan dam, Iran have been highlighted.


Permeability Analysis based on information granulation theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes application of information granulation theory, on the analysis of "lugeon data". In this manner, using a combining of Self Organizing Map (SOM) and Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS), crisp and fuzzy granules are obtained. Balancing of crisp granules and sub- fuzzy granules, within non fuzzy information (initial granulation), is rendered in open-close iteration. Using two criteria, "simplicity of rules "and "suitable adaptive threshold error level", stability of algorithm is guaranteed. In other part of paper, rough set theory (RST), to approximate analysis, has been employed >.Validation of the proposed methods, on the large data set of in-situ permeability in rock masses, in the Shivashan dam, Iran, has been highlighted. By the implementation of the proposed algorithm on the lugeon data set, was proved the suggested method, relating the approximate analysis on the permeability, could be applied.


ARCO1: An Application of Belief Networks to the Oil Market

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an impact on the crude oil market. A pictorial market model-developed on a MAC II- facilitates consensus among the members of the forecasting team. The system forecasts crude oil prices via Monte Carlo analyses of the network. Several different models of the oil market have been developed; the system's ability to be updated quickly highlights its flexibility.