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Modeling Short Over-Dispersed Spike Count Data: A Hierarchical Parametric Empirical Bayes Framework

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this letter, a Hierarchical Parametric Empirical Bayes model is proposed to model spike count data. We have integrated Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and empirical Bayes theory to simultaneously provide three advantages: (1) a model of over-dispersion of spike count values; (2) reduced MSE in estimation when compared to using the maximum likelihood method for GLMs; and (3) an efficient alternative to inference with fully Bayes estimators. We apply the model to study both simulated data and experimental neural data from the retina. The simulation results indicate that the new model can estimate both the weights of connections among neural populations and the output firing rates (mean spike count) efficiently and accurately. The results from the retinal datasets show that the proposed model outperforms both standard Poisson and Negative Binomial GLMs in terms of the prediction log-likelihood of held-out datasets.


Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know About

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We discuss the relevance of the recent Machine Learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the machine learning literature that we view as important for empirical researchers in economics. These include supervised learning methods for regression and classification, unsupervised learning methods, as well as matrix completion methods. Finally, we highlight newly developed methods at the intersection of ML and econometrics, methods that typically perform better than either off-the-shelf ML or more traditional econometric methods when applied to particular classes of problems, problems that include causal inference for average treatment effects, optimal policy estimation, and estimation of the counterfactual effect of price changes in consumer choice models.


Predicting Audio Advertisement Quality

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Online audio advertising is a particular form of advertising used abundantly in online music streaming services. In these platforms, which tend to host tens of thousands of unique audio advertisements (ads), providing high quality ads ensures a better user experience and results in longer user engagement. Therefore, the automatic assessment of these ads is an important step toward audio ads ranking and better audio ads creation. In this paper we propose one way to measure the quality of the audio ads using a proxy metric called Long Click Rate (LCR), which is defined by the amount of time a user engages with the follow-up display ad (that is shown while the audio ad is playing) divided by the impressions. We later focus on predicting the audio ad quality using only acoustic features such as harmony, rhythm, and timbre of the audio, extracted from the raw waveform. We discuss how the characteristics of the sound can be connected to concepts such as the clarity of the audio ad message, its trustworthiness, etc. Finally, we propose a new deep learning model for audio ad quality prediction, which outperforms the other discussed models trained on hand-crafted features. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale audio ad quality prediction study.



Fast Gaussian Process Regression for Big Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian Processes are widely used for regression tasks. A known limitation in the application of Gaussian Processes to regression tasks is that the computation of the solution requires performing a matrix inversion. The solution also requires the storage of a large matrix in memory. These factors restrict the application of Gaussian Process regression to small and moderate size data sets. We present an algorithm that combines estimates from models developed using subsets of the data obtained in a manner similar to the bootstrap. The sample size is a critical parameter for this algorithm. Guidelines for reasonable choices of algorithm parameters, based on detailed experimental study, are provided. Various techniques have been proposed to scale Gaussian Processes to large scale regression tasks. The most appropriate choice depends on the problem context. The proposed method is most appropriate for problems where an additive model works well and the response depends on a small number of features. The minimax rate of convergence for such problems is attractive and we can build effective models with a small subset of the data. The Stochastic Variational Gaussian Process and the Sparse Gaussian Process are also appropriate choices for such problems. These methods pick a subset of data based on theoretical considerations. The proposed algorithm uses bagging and random sampling. Results from experiments conducted as part of this study indicate that the algorithm presented in this work can be as effective as these methods. Model stacking can be used to combine the model developed with the proposed method with models from other methods for large scale regression such as Gradient Boosted Trees. This can yield performance gains.