A Generalized Bradley-Terry Model: From Group Competition to Individual Skill

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Bradley-Terry model for paired comparison has been popular in many areas. We propose a generalized version in which paired individual comparisons are extended to paired team comparisons. We introduce a simple algorithm with convergence proofs to solve the model and obtain individual skill. A useful application to multi-class probability estimates using error-correcting codes is demonstrated.

Efficient Bayesian Inference for Generalized Bradley-Terry Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Bradley-Terry model is a popular approach to describe probabilities of the possible outcomes when elements of a set are repeatedly compared with one another in pairs. It has found many applications including animal behaviour, chess ranking and multiclass classification. Numerous extensions of the basic model have also been proposed in the literature including models with ties, multiple comparisons, group comparisons and random graphs. From a computational point of view, Hunter (2004) has proposed efficient iterative MM (minorization-maximization) algorithms to perform maximum likelihood estimation for these generalized Bradley-Terry models whereas Bayesian inference is typically performed using MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) algorithms based on tailored Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) proposals. We show here that these MM\ algorithms can be reinterpreted as special instances of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms associated to suitable sets of latent variables and propose some original extensions. These latent variables allow us to derive simple Gibbs samplers for Bayesian inference. We demonstrate experimentally the efficiency of these algorithms on a variety of applications.

Fast and Accurate Inference of Plackett–Luce Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We show that the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of models derived from Luce's choice axiom (e.g., the Plackett-Luce model) can be expressed as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. This conveys insight into several recently proposed spectral inference algorithms. We take advantage of this perspective and formulate a new spectral algorithm that is significantly more accurate than previous ones for the Plackett--Luce model. With a simple adaptation, this algorithm can be used iteratively, producing a sequence of estimates that converges to the ML estimate. The ML version runs faster than competing approaches on a benchmark of five datasets. Our algorithms are easy to implement, making them relevant for practitioners at large.

Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalized version of it, while the posterior densities of the parameters of the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model are approximated using integrated nested Laplace approximations. The prediction performance of the various modeling approaches is assessed using a novel, context-specific framework for temporal validation that is found to deliver accurate estimates of the test error. The direct modeling of outcomes via the various Bradley-Terry extensions and the modeling of match scores using the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model demonstrate similar behavior in terms of predictive performance.

When majority voting fails: Comparing quality assurance methods for noisy human computation environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quality assurance remains a key topic in human computation research. Prior work indicates that majority voting is effective for low difficulty tasks, but has limitations for harder tasks. This paper explores two methods of addressing this problem: tournament selection and elimination selection, which exploit 2-, 3- and 4-way comparisons between different answers to human computation tasks. Our experimental results and statistical analyses show that both methods produce the correct answer in noisy human computation environment more often than majority voting. Furthermore, we find that the use of 4-way comparisons can significantly reduce the cost of quality assurance relative to the use of 2-way comparisons.