Fong, Edwin, Lyddon, Simon, Holmes, Chris

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the validity of the conventional Bayesian update. We present a scalable Bayesian nonparametric learning routine that enables posterior sampling through the optimization of suitably randomized objective functions. A Dirichlet process prior on the unknown data distribution accounts for model misspecification, and admits an embarrassingly parallel posterior bootstrap algorithm that generates independent and exact samples from the nonparametric posterior distribution. Our method is particularly adept at sampling from multimodal posterior distributions via a random restart mechanism. We demonstrate our method on Gaussian mixture model and sparse logistic regression examples.

Neiswanger, Willie, Xing, Eric

While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result with any convenient false prior, and afterwards, given any target prior of interest, quickly transform this result into the target posterior? A potential solution is to use importance sampling (IS). However, we demonstrate that IS will fail for many choices of the target prior, depending on its parametric form and similarity to the false prior. Instead, we propose prior swapping, a method that leverages the pre-inferred false posterior to efficiently generate accurate posterior samples under arbitrary target priors. Prior swapping lets us apply less-costly inference algorithms to certain models, and incorporate new or updated prior information "post-inference". We give theoretical guarantees about our method, and demonstrate it empirically on a number of models and priors.

Rezende, Danilo Jimenez, Mohamed, Shakir

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Carmona, Chris U., Nicholls, Geoff K.

Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is coherent, and write down a new family of Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) schemes, indexed by an influence parameter, with Bayesian inference and Cut-models as special cases. We give a meta-learning criterion and estimation procedure to choose the inference scheme. This returns Bayesian inference when there is no misspecification. The framework applies naturally to Multi-modular models. Cut-model inference allows directed information flow from well-specified modules to misspecified modules, but not vice versa. An existing alternative power posterior method gives tunable but undirected control of information flow, improving prediction in some settings. In contrast, SMI allows tunable and directed information flow between modules. We illustrate our methods on two standard test cases from the literature and a motivating archaeological data set.

Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such as regression where predictive accuracy is the quantity of interest, this coupling is not crucial. Howewer if one is interested in posterior uncertainty, it cannot be ignored. A key element of variational inference schemes is the choice of the approximate posterior parameterization. When the number of latent variables is large, mean field (MF) methods provide fast and accurate posterior means while more structured posterior lead to inference algorithm of greater computational complexity. Here, we extend previous sparse GP approximations and propose a novel parameterization of variational posteriors in the multi-GP setting allowing for fast and scalable inference capturing posterior dependencies.