In our previous study, we introduced stable specification search for cross-sectional data (S3C). It is an exploratory causal method that combines stability selection concept and multi-objective optimization to search for stable and parsimonious causal structures across the entire range of model complexities. In this study, we extended S3C to S3C-Latent, to model causal relations between latent variables. We evaluated S3C-Latent on simulated data and compared the results to those of PC-MIMBuild, an extension of the PC algorithm, the state-of-the-art causal discovery method. The comparison showed that S3C-Latent achieved better performance. We also applied S3C-Latent to real-world data of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and data about measuring mental abilities among pupils. The results are consistent with those of previous studies.
A standard technique for understanding underlying dependency structures among a set of variables posits a shared conditional probability distribution for the variables measured on individuals within a group. This approach is often referred to as module networks, where individuals are represented by nodes in a network, groups are termed modules, and the focus is on estimating the network structure among modules. However, estimation solely from node-specific variables can lead to spurious dependencies, and unverifiable structural assumptions are often used for regularization. Here, we propose an extended model that leverages direct observations about the network in addition to node-specific variables. By integrating complementary data types, we avoid the need for structural assumptions. We illustrate theoretical and practical significance of the model and develop a reversible-jump MCMC learning procedure for learning modules and model parameters. We demonstrate the method accuracy in predicting modular structures from synthetic data and capability to learn influence structures in twitter data and regulatory modules in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis gene regulatory network.
The burgeoning need for kidney transplantation mandates immediate attention. Mismatch of deceased donor-recipient kidney leads to post-transplant death. To ensure ideal kidney donor-recipient match and minimize post-transplant deaths, the paper develops a prediction model that identifies factors that determine the probability of success of renal transplantation, that is, if the kidney procured from the deceased donor can be transplanted or discarded. The paper conducts a study enveloping data for 584 imported kidneys collected from 12 transplant centers associated with an organ procurement organization located in New York City, NY. The predicting model yielding best performance measures can be beneficial to the healthcare industry. Transplant centers and organ procurement organizations can take advantage of the prediction model to efficiently predict the outcome of kidney transplantation. Consequently, it will reduce the mortality rate caused by mismatching of donor-recipient kidney transplantation during the surgery.
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abberations from an expected endemic level using these data. Here, we develop the first supervised learning approach based on hidden Markov models for disease outbreak detection, which leverages data that is routinely collected within a public health surveillance system. We evaluate our model using real Salmonella and Campylobacter data, as well as simulations. In comparison to a state-of-the-art approach, which is applied in multiple European countries including Germany, our proposed model reduces the false positive rate by up to 50% while retaining the same sensitivity. We see our supervised learning approach as a significant step to further develop machine learning applications for disease outbreak detection, which will be instrumental to improve public health surveillance systems.
In order to investigate the breast cancer prediction problem on the aging population with the grades of DCIS, we conduct a tree augmented naive Bayesian network experiment trained and tested on a large clinical dataset including consecutive diagnostic mammography examinations, consequent biopsy outcomes and related cancer registry records in the population of women across all ages. The aggregated results of our ten-fold cross validation method recommend a biopsy threshold higher than 2% for the aging population.