The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence requires accurate forecasts and means to understand the reasoning of artificial intelligence models behind such a forecast. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to provide cues for why a model issued a certain prediction. Such cues are of utmost importance to decision-making since they provide insights on the features that influenced most certain forecasts and let the user decide if the forecast can be trusted. Though many techniques were developed to explain black-box models, little research was done on assessing the quality of those explanations and their influence on decision-making. We propose an ontology and knowledge graph to support collecting feedback regarding forecasts, forecast explanations, recommended decision-making options, and user actions. This way, we provide means to improve forecasting models, explanations, and recommendations of decision-making options.
Actionable Cognitive Twins are the next generation Digital Twins enhanced with cognitive capabilities through a knowledge graph and artificial intelligence models that provide insights and decision-making options to the users. The knowledge graph describes the domain-specific knowledge regarding entities and interrelationships related to a manufacturing setting. It also contains information on possible decision-making options that can assist decision-makers, such as planners or logisticians. In this paper, we propose a knowledge graph modeling approach to construct actionable cognitive twins for capturing specific knowledge related to demand forecasting and production planning in a manufacturing plant. The knowledge graph provides semantic descriptions and contextualization of the production lines and processes, including data identification and simulation or artificial intelligence algorithms and forecasts used to support them. Such semantics provide ground for inferencing, relating different knowledge types: creative, deductive, definitional, and inductive. To develop the knowledge graph models for describing the use case completely, systems thinking approach is proposed to design and verify the ontology, develop a knowledge graph and build an actionable cognitive twin. Finally, we evaluate our approach in two use cases developed for a European original equipment manufacturer related to the automotive industry as part of the European Horizon 2020 project FACTLOG.
A general approach for building a smart assistant that guides a user from a forecast generated by a machine learning model through a sequence of decision-making steps is presented. We develop a methodology to build such a system. The system is demonstrated on a demand forecasting use case in manufacturing. The methodology can be extended to several use cases in manufacturing. The system provides means for knowledge acquisition, gathering data from users. We envision active learning can be used to get data labels where labeled data is scarce.
The implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in the manufacturing domain enables higher production efficiency, outstanding performance, and safer operations, leveraging powerful tools such as deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques. Despite the high accuracy of these models, they are mostly considered black boxes: they are unintelligible to the human. Opaqueness affects trust in the system, a factor that is critical in the context of decision-making. We present an overview of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques as a means of boosting the transparency of models. We analyze different metrics to evaluate these techniques and describe several application scenarios in the manufacturing domain.
Rožanec, Jože M., Zajec, Patrik, Kenda, Klemen, Novalija, Inna, Fortuna, Blaž, Mladenić, Dunja, Veliou, Entso, Papamartzivanos, Dimitrios, Giannetsos, Thanassis, Menesidou, Sofia Anna, Alonso, Rubén, Cauli, Nino, Recupero, Diego Reforgiato, Kyriazis, Dimosthenis, Sofianidis, Georgios, Theodoropoulos, Spyros, Soldatos, John
There is a lack of a single architecture specification that addresses the needs of trusted and secure Artificial Intelligence systems with humans in the loop, such as human-centered manufacturing systems at the core of the evolution towards Industry 5.0. To realize this, we propose an architecture that integrates forecasts, Explainable Artificial Intelligence, supports collecting users' feedback, and uses Active Learning and Simulated Reality to enhance forecasts and provide decision-making recommendations. The architecture security is addressed as a general concern. We align the proposed architecture with the Big Data Value Association Reference Architecture Model. We tailor it for the domain of demand forecasting and validate it on a real-world case study.