Goto

Collaborating Authors

Learning from Similarity-Confidence Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Weakly supervised learning has drawn considerable attention recently to reduce the expensive time and labor consumption of labeling massive data. In this paper, we investigate a novel weakly supervised learning problem of learning from similarity-confidence (Sconf) data, where we aim to learn an effective binary classifier from only unlabeled data pairs equipped with confidence that illustrates their degree of similarity (two examples are similar if they belong to the same class). To solve this problem, we propose an unbiased estimator of the classification risk that can be calculated from only Sconf data and show that the estimation error bound achieves the optimal convergence rate. To alleviate potential overfitting when flexible models are used, we further employ a risk correction scheme on the proposed risk estimator. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.


No Unbiased Estimator of the Variance of K-Fold Cross-Validation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Most machine learning researchers perform quantitative experiments to estimate generalization error and compare algorithm performances. In order to draw statistically convincing conclusions, it is important to estimate the uncertainty of such estimates. This paper studies the estimation of uncertainty around the K-fold cross-validation estimator. The main theorem shows that there exists no universal unbiased estimator of the variance of K-fold cross-validation. An analysis based on the eigendecomposition of the covariance matrix of errors helps to better understand the nature of the problem and shows that naive estimators may grossly underestimate variance, as con£rmed by numerical experiments.



No Unbiased Estimator of the Variance of K-Fold Cross-Validation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Most machine learning researchers perform quantitative experiments to estimate generalization error and compare algorithm performances. In order to draw statistically convincing conclusions, it is important to estimate the uncertainty of such estimates. This paper studies the estimation of uncertainty around the K-fold cross-validation estimator. The main theorem shows that there exists no universal unbiased estimator of the variance of K-fold cross-validation. An analysis based on the eigendecomposition of the covariance matrix of errors helps to better understand the nature of the problem and shows that naive estimators may grossly underestimate variance, as con£rmed by numerical experiments.


Assessment of Treatment Effect Estimators for Heavy-Tailed Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A central obstacle in the objective assessment of treatment effect (TE) estimators in randomized control trials (RCTs) is the lack of ground truth (or validation set) to test their performance. In this paper, we provide a novel cross-validation-like methodology to address this challenge. The key insight of our procedure is that the noisy (but unbiased) difference-of-means estimate can be used as a ground truth "label" on a portion of the RCT, to test the performance of an estimator trained on the other portion. We combine this insight with an aggregation scheme, which borrows statistical strength across a large collection of RCTs, to present an end-to-end methodology for judging an estimator's ability to recover the underlying treatment effect. We evaluate our methodology across 709 RCTs implemented in the Amazon supply chain. In the corpus of AB tests at Amazon, we highlight the unique difficulties associated with recovering the treatment effect due to the heavy-tailed nature of the response variables. In this heavy-tailed setting, our methodology suggests that procedures that aggressively downweight or truncate large values, while introducing bias, lower the variance enough to ensure that the treatment effect is more accurately estimated.