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On-manifold Adversarial Data Augmentation Improves Uncertainty Calibration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty estimates help to identify ambiguous, novel, or anomalous inputs, but the reliable quantification of uncertainty has proven to be challenging for modern deep networks. To improve uncertainty estimation, we propose On-Manifold Adversarial Data Augmentation or OMADA, which specifically attempts to generate the most challenging examples by following an on-manifold adversarial attack path in the latent space of an autoencoder-based generative model that closely approximates decision boundaries between two or more classes. On a variety of datasets and for multiple network architectures, OMADA consistently yields more accurate and better calibrated classifiers than baseline models, and outperforms competing approaches such as Mixup and CutMix, as well as achieving similar performance to (at times better than) post-processing calibration methods such as temperature scaling. Variants of OMADA can employ different sampling schemes for ambiguous on-manifold examples based on the entropy of their estimated soft labels, which exhibit specific strengths for generalization, calibration of predicted uncertainty, or detection of out-of-distribution inputs.


Diverse Ensembles Improve Calibration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern deep neural networks can produce badly calibrated predictions, especially when train and test distributions are mismatched. Training an ensemble of models and averaging their predictions can help alleviate these issues. We propose a simple technique to improve calibration, using a different data augmentation for each ensemble member. We additionally use the idea of `mixing' un-augmented and augmented inputs to improve calibration when test and training distributions are the same. These simple techniques improve calibration and accuracy over strong baselines on the CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 benchmarks, and out-of-domain data from their corrupted versions.


BatchEnsemble: An Alternative Approach to Efficient Ensemble and Lifelong Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ensembles, where multiple neural networks are trained individually and their predictions are averaged, have been shown to be widely successful for improving both the accuracy and predictive uncertainty of single neural networks. However, an ensemble's cost for both training and testing increases linearly with the number of networks, which quickly becomes untenable. In this paper, we propose BatchEnsemble 1, an ensemble method whose computational and memory costs are significantly lower than typical ensembles. BatchEnsemble achieves this by defining each weight matrix to be the Hadamard product of a shared weight among all ensemble members and a rank-one matrix per member. Unlike ensembles, BatchEnsemble is not only parallelizable across devices, where one device trains one member, but also parallelizable within a device, where multiple ensemble members are updated simultaneously for a given mini-batch. Across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, WMT14 EN-DE/EN-FR translation, and out-of-distribution tasks, BatchEnsemble yields competitive accuracy and uncertainties as typical ensembles; the speedup at test time is 3X and memory reduction is 3X at an ensemble of size 4. We also apply BatchEnsemble to lifelong learning, where on Split-CIFAR-100, BatchEnsemble yields comparable performance to progressive neural networks while having a much lower computational and memory costs. We further show that BatchEnsemble can easily scale up to lifelong learning on Split-ImageNet which involves 100 sequential learning tasks.


Uncertainty Quantification and Deep Ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep Learning methods are known to suffer from calibration issues: they typically produce over-confident estimates. These problems are exacerbated in the low data regime. Although the calibration of probabilistic models is well studied, calibrating extremely over-parametrized models in the low-data regime presents unique challenges. We show that deep-ensembles do not necessarily lead to improved calibration properties. In fact, we show that standard ensembling methods, when used in conjunction with modern techniques such as mixup regularization, can lead to less calibrated models. In this text, we examine the interplay between three of the most simple and commonly used approaches to leverage deep learning when data is scarce: data-augmentation, ensembling, and post-processing calibration methods. We demonstrate that, although standard ensembling techniques certainly help to boost accuracy, the calibration of deep-ensembles relies on subtle trade-offs. Our main finding is that calibration methods such as temperature scaling need to be slightly tweaked when used with deep-ensembles and, crucially, need to be executed after the averaging process. Our simulations indicate that, in the low data regime, this simple strategy can halve the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) on a range of benchmark classification problems when compared to standard deep-ensembles.


On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mixup~\cite{zhang2017mixup} is a recently proposed method for training deep neural networks where additional samples are generated during training by convexly combining random pairs of images and their associated labels. While simple to implement, it has shown to be a surprisingly effective method of data augmentation for image classification; DNNs trained with mixup show noticeable gains in classification performance on a number of image classification benchmarks. In this work, we discuss a hitherto untouched aspect of mixup training -- the calibration and predictive uncertainty of models trained with mixup. We find that DNNs trained with mixup are significantly better calibrated -- i.e., the predicted softmax scores are much better indicators of the actual likelihood of a correct prediction -- than DNNs trained in the regular fashion. We conduct experiments on a number of image classification architectures and datasets -- including large-scale datasets like ImageNet -- and find this to be the case. Additionally, we find that merely mixing features does not result in the same calibration benefit and that the label smoothing in mixup training plays a significant role in improving calibration. Finally, we also observe that mixup-trained DNNs are less prone to over-confident predictions on out-of-distribution and random-noise data. We conclude that the typical overconfidence seen in neural networks, even on in-distribution data is likely a consequence of training with hard labels, suggesting that mixup training be employed for classification tasks where predictive uncertainty is a significant concern.