Montufar, Guido, Ay, Nihat, Ghazi-Zahedi, Keyan

Conditional restricted Boltzmann machines are undirected stochastic neural networks with a layer of input and output units connected bipartitely to a layer of hidden units. These networks define models of conditional probability distributions on the states of the output units given the states of the input units, parametrized by interaction weights and biases. We address the representational power of these models, proving results their ability to represent conditional Markov random fields and conditional distributions with restricted supports, the minimal size of universal approximators, the maximal model approximation errors, and on the dimension of the set of representable conditional distributions. We contribute new tools for investigating conditional probability models, which allow us to improve the results that can be derived from existing work on restricted Boltzmann machine probability models.

Hoffman, Judy, Mohri, Mehryar, Zhang, Ningshan

We present a number of novel contributions to the multiple-source adaptation problem. We derive new normalized solutions with strong theoretical guarantees for the cross-entropy loss and other similar losses. We also provide new guarantees that hold in the case where the conditional probabilities for the source domains are distinct. Moreover, we give new algorithms for determining the distribution-weighted combination solution for the cross-entropy loss and other losses. We report the results of a series of experiments with real-world datasets. We find that our algorithm outperforms competing approaches by producing a single robust model that performs well on any target mixture distribution. Altogether, our theory, algorithms, and empirical results provide a full solution for the multiple-source adaptation problem with very practical benefits.

Chen, Di, Xue, Yexiang, Chen, Shuo, Fink, Daniel, Gomes, Carla

Understanding how species are distributed across landscapes over time is a fundamental question in biodiversity research. Unfortunately, most species distribution models only target a single species at a time, despite strong ecological evidence that species are not independently distributed. We propose Deep Multi-Species Embedding (DMSE), which jointly embeds vectors corresponding to multiple species as well as vectors representing environmental covariates into a common high-dimensional feature space via a deep neural network. Applied to bird observational data from the citizen science project \textit{eBird}, we demonstrate how the DMSE model discovers inter-species relationships to outperform single-species distribution models (random forests and SVMs) as well as competing multi-label models. Additionally, we demonstrate the benefit of using a deep neural network to extract features within the embedding and show how they improve the predictive performance of species distribution modelling. An important domain contribution of the DMSE model is the ability to discover and describe species interactions while simultaneously learning the shared habitat preferences among species. As an additional contribution, we provide a graphical embedding of hundreds of bird species in the Northeast US.

We describe a novel noisy-logical distribution for representing the distribution of a binary output variable conditioned on multiple binary input variables. The distribution is represented in terms of noisy-or's and noisy-and-not's of causal features which are conjunctions of the binary inputs. The standard noisy-or and noisy-and-not models, used in causal reasoning and artificial intelligence, are special cases of the noisy-logical distribution. We prove that the noisy-logical distribution is complete in the sense that it can represent all conditional distributions provided a sufficient number of causal factors are used. We illustrate the noisy-logical distribution by showing that it can account for new experimental findings on how humans perform causal reasoning in more complex contexts. Finally, we speculate on the use of the noisy-logical distribution for causal reasoning and artificial intelligence.

Linear regression is a common technique used in the association study between the targeted outcome and some potential risk factors (e.g., age, sex). The violation of the normality assumption sometimes may be attributed by the skewed nature of the dependent variable and may be a concern for naturally skewed outcome variables, such as best corrected visual acuity, 1 refractive error, 2 and Rasch score. Normality violation will affect the estimates of the standard error (SE) and the confidence interval, and hence the significance of the risk factors. Nonparametric regression model or bootstrap techniques are suggested to be performed as they provide more robust estimates of SE. However, nonparametric techniques require large sample sizes to supply; the model structure, and are very sensitive to the outliers.