An Intelligent Broker Agent for Energy Trading: An MDP Approach

AAAI Conferences

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker's bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.


Applications of Classifying Bidding Strategies for the CAT Tournament

AAAI Conferences

In the CAT Tournament, specialists facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers with the intention of maximizing profit from commission and other fees. Each specialist must find a well-balanced strategy that allows it to entice buyers and sellers to trade in its market while also retaining the buyers and sellers that are currently subscribed to it. Classification techniques can be used to determine the distribution of bidding strategies used by all traders subscribed to a particular specialist. Our experiments showed that Hidden Markov Model classification yielded the best results. The distribution of strategies, along with other competition-related factors, can be used to determine the optimal action in any given game state. Experimental data shows that the GD and ZIP bidding strategies are more volatile than the RE and ZIC strategies, although no traders ever readily switch specialists. An MDP framework for determining optimal actions given an accurate distribution of bidding strategies is proposed as a motivator for future work.


Classification-Based Machine Learning for Finance

@machinelearnbot

Finally, a comprehensive hands-on machine learning course with specific focus on classification based models for the investment community and passionate investors. In the past few years, there has been a massive adoption and growth in the use of data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning to find alpha. However, information on and application of machine learning to investment are scarce. This course has been designed to address that. It is meant to spark your creative juices and get you started in this space.



Regression-Based Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

@machinelearnbot

Finally, a comprehensive hands-on machine learning course with specific focus on regression based models for the investment community and any passionate investors. In the past few years, there has been a massive adoption and growth in the use of data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning to find alpha. However, information on and application of machine learning to investment are scarce. This course has been designed to address that. It is meant to spark your creative juices.