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Robust Data Preprocessing for Machine-Learning-Based Disk Failure Prediction in Cloud Production Environments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To provide proactive fault tolerance for modern cloud data centers, extensive studies have proposed machine learning (ML) approaches to predict imminent disk failures for early remedy and evaluated their approaches directly on public datasets (e.g., Backblaze SMART logs). However, in real-world production environments, the data quality is imperfect (e.g., inaccurate labeling, missing data samples, and complex failure types), thereby degrading the prediction accuracy. We present RODMAN, a robust data preprocessing pipeline that refines data samples before feeding them into ML models. We start with a large-scale trace-driven study of over three million disks from Alibaba Cloud's data centers, and motivate the practical challenges in ML-based disk failure prediction. We then design RODMAN with three data preprocessing echniques, namely failure-type filtering, spline-based data filling, and automated pre-failure backtracking, that are applicable for general ML models. Evaluation on both the Alibaba and Backblaze datasets shows that RODMAN improves the prediction accuracy compared to without data preprocessing under various settings.


Layerwise Perturbation-Based Adversarial Training for Hard Drive Health Degree Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the development of cloud computing and big data, the reliability of data storage systems becomes increasingly important. Previous researchers have shown that machine learning algorithms based on SMART attributes are effective methods to predict hard drive failures. In this paper, we use SMART attributes to predict hard drive health degrees which are helpful for taking different fault tolerant actions in advance. Given the highly imbalanced SMART datasets, it is a nontrivial work to predict the health degree precisely. The proposed model would encounter overfitting and biased fitting problems if it is trained by the traditional methods. In order to resolve this problem, we propose two strategies to better utilize imbalanced data and improve performance. Firstly, we design a layerwise perturbation-based adversarial training method which can add perturbations to any layers of a neural network to improve the generalization of the network. Secondly, we extend the training method to the semi-supervised settings. Then, it is possible to utilize unlabeled data that have a potential of failure to further improve the performance of the model. Our extensive experiments on two real-world hard drive datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed schemes for both supervised and semi-supervised classification. The model trained by the proposed method can correctly predict the hard drive health status 5 and 15 days in advance. Finally, we verify the generality of the proposed training method in other similar anomaly detection tasks where the dataset is imbalanced. The results argue that the proposed methods are applicable to other domains.


Cost-Sensitive Learning for Predictive Maintenance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In predictive maintenance, model performance is usually assessed by means of precision, recall, and F1-score. However, employing the model with best performance, e.g. highest F1-score, does not necessarily result in minimum maintenance cost, but can instead lead to additional expenses. Thus, we propose to perform model selection based on the economic costs associated with the particular maintenance application. We show that cost-sensitive learning for predictive maintenance can result in significant cost reduction and fault tolerant policies, since it allows to incorporate various business constraints and requirements.


Learning representations with end-to-end models for improved remaining useful life prognostics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The remaining Useful Life (RUL) of equipment is defined as the duration between the current time and its failure. An accurate and reliable prognostic of the remaining useful life provides decision-makers with valuable information to adopt an appropriate maintenance strategy to maximize equipment utilization and avoid costly breakdowns. In this work, we propose an end-to-end deep learning model based on multi-layer perceptron and long short-term memory layers (LSTM) to predict the RUL. After normalization of all data, inputs are fed directly to an MLP layers for feature learning, then to an LSTM layer to capture temporal dependencies, and finally to other MLP layers for RUL prognostic. The proposed architecture is tested on the NASA commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset. Despite its simplicity with respect to other recently proposed models, the model developed outperforms them with a significant decrease in the competition score and in the root mean square error score between the predicted and the gold value of the RUL. In this paper, we will discuss how the proposed end-to-end model is able to achieve such good results and compare it to other deep learning and state-of-the-art methods.


Temporal Convolutional Memory Networks for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Industrial Machinery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial machinery is beneficial in many real-world applications. Estimation techniques have mainly utilized linear models or neural network based approaches with a focus on short term time dependencies. This paper introduces a system model that incorporates temporal convolutions with both long term and short term time dependencies. The proposed network learns salient features and complex temporal variations in sensor values, and predicts the RUL. A data augmentation method is used for increased accuracy. The proposed method is compared with several state-of-the-art algorithms on publicly available datasets. It demonstrates promising results, with superior results for datasets obtained from complex environments.