A Generalization of the Chow-Liu Algorithm and its Application to Statistical Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We extend the Chow-Liu algorithm for general random variables while the previous versions only considered finite cases. In particular, this paper applies the generalization to Suzuki's learning algorithm that generates from data forests rather than trees based on the minimum description length by balancing the fitness of the data to the forest and the simplicity of the forest. As a result, we successfully obtain an algorithm when both of the Gaussian and finite random variables are present.



Performance Impact Caused by Hidden Bias of Training Data for Recognizing Textual Entailment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The quality of training data is one of the crucial problems when a learning-centered approach is employed. This paper proposes a new method to investigate the quality of a large corpus designed for the recognizing textual entailment (RTE) task. The proposed method, which is inspired by a statistical hypothesis test, consists of two phases: the first phase is to introduce the predictability of textual entailment labels as a null hypothesis which is extremely unacceptable if a target corpus has no hidden bias, and the second phase is to test the null hypothesis using a Naive Bayes model. The experimental result of the Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) corpus does not reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, it indicates that the SNLI corpus has a hidden bias which allows prediction of textual entailment labels from hypothesis sentences even if no context information is given by a premise sentence. This paper also presents the performance impact of NN models for RTE caused by this hidden bias.


Bayesian Non-Homogeneous Markov Models via Polya-Gamma Data Augmentation with Applications to Rainfall Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Discrete-time hidden Markov models are a broadly useful class of latent-variable models with applications in areas such as speech recognition, bioinformatics, and climate data analysis. It is common in practice to introduce temporal non-homogeneity into such models by making the transition probabilities dependent on time-varying exogenous input variables via a multinomial logistic parametrization. We extend such models to introduce additional non-homogeneity into the emission distribution using a generalized linear model (GLM), with data augmentation for sampling-based inference. However, the presence of the logistic function in the state transition model significantly complicates parameter inference for the overall model, particularly in a Bayesian context. To address this we extend the recently-proposed Polya-Gamma data augmentation approach to handle non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs), allowing the development of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme. We apply our model and inference scheme to 30 years of daily rainfall in India, leading to a number of insights into rainfall-related phenomena in the region. Our proposed approach allows for fully Bayesian analysis of relatively complex NHMMs on a scale that was not possible with previous methods. Software implementing the methods described in the paper is available via the R package NHMM.


Bayesian Adversarial Spheres: Bayesian Inference and Adversarial Examples in a Noiseless Setting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern deep neural network models suffer from adversarial examples, i.e. confidently misclassified points in the input space. It has been shown that Bayesian neural networks are a promising approach for detecting adversarial points, but careful analysis is problematic due to the complexity of these models. Recently Gilmer et al. (2018) introduced adversarial spheres, a toy set-up that simplifies both practical and theoretical analysis of the problem. In this work, we use the adversarial sphere set-up to understand the properties of approximate Bayesian inference methods for a linear model in a noiseless setting. We compare predictions of Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, showcasing the advantages of the former, although revealing open challenges for deep learning applications.