A Measure-Free Approach to Conditioning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In an earlier paper, a new theory of measurefree "conditional" objects was presented. In this paper, emphasis is placed upon the motivation of the theory. The central part of this motivation is established through an example involving a knowledge-based system. In order to evaluate combination of evidence for this system, using observed data, auxiliary at tribute and diagnosis variables, and inference rules connecting them, one must first choose an appropriate algebraic logic description pair (ALDP): a formal language or syntax followed by a compatible logic or semantic evaluation (or model). Three common choices- for this highly non-unique choice - are briefly discussed, the logics being Classical Logic, Fuzzy Logic, and Probability Logic. In all three,the key operator representing implication for the inference rules is interpreted as the often-used disjunction of a negation (b => a) = (b'v a), for any events a,b. However, another reasonable interpretation of the implication operator is through the familiar form of probabilistic conditioning. But, it can be shown - quite surprisingly - that the ALDP corresponding to Probability Logic cannot be used as a rigorous basis for this interpretation! To fill this gap, a new ALDP is constructed consisting of "conditional objects", extending ordinary Probability Logic, and compatible with the desired conditional probability interpretation of inference rules. It is shown also that this choice of ALDP leads to feasible computations for the combination of evidence evaluation in the example. In addition, a number of basic properties of conditional objects and the resulting Conditional Probability Logic are given, including a characterization property and a developed calculus of relations.


An Evolutionary Hierarchical Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Knowledge Representation System (EHIT2FKRS) for Travel Route Assignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban Traffic Networks are characterized by high dynamics of traffic flow and increased travel time, including waiting times. This leads to more complex road traffic management. The present research paper suggests an innovative advanced traffic management system based on Hierarchical Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic model optimized by the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. The aim of designing this system is to perform dynamic route assignment to relieve traffic congestion and limit the unexpected fluctuation effects on traffic flow. The suggested system is executed and simulated using SUMO, a well-known microscopic traffic simulator. For the present study, we have tested four large and heterogeneous metropolitan areas located in the cities of Sfax, Luxembourg, Bologna and Cologne. The experimental results proved the effectiveness of learning the Hierarchical Interval type-2 Fuzzy logic using real time particle swarm optimization technique PSO to accomplish multiobjective optimality regarding two criteria: number of vehicles that reach their destination and average travel time. The obtained results are encouraging, confirming the efficiency of the proposed system.


A Quantum Production Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The production system is a theoretical model of computation relevant to the artificial intelligence field allowing for problem solving procedures such as hierarchical tree search. In this work we explore some of the connections between artificial intelligence and quantum computation by presenting a model for a quantum production system. Our approach focuses on initially developing a model for a reversible production system which is a simple mapping of Bennett's reversible Turing machine. We then expand on this result in order to accommodate for the requirements of quantum computation. We present the details of how our proposition can be used alongside Grover's algorithm in order to yield a speedup comparatively to its classical counterpart. We discuss the requirements associated with such a speedup and how it compares against a similar quantum hierarchical search approach.


The combinatorial structure of beta negative binomial processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of Bernoulli processes with a common beta process base measure, in which case the combinatorial structure is described by the Indian buffet process. Our results give a count analogue of the Indian buffet process, which we call a negative binomial Indian buffet process. As an intermediate step toward this goal, we provide a construction for the beta negative binomial process that avoids a representation of the underlying beta process base measure. We describe the key Markov kernels needed to use a NB-IBP representation in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm targeting a posterior distribution.


A Modern Retrospective on Probabilistic Numerics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The field of probabilistic numerics (PN), loosely speaking, attempts to provide a statistical treatment of the errors and/or approximations that are made en route to the output of a deterministic numerical method, e.g. the approximation of an integral by quadrature, or the discretised solution of an ordinary or partial differential equation. This decade has seen a surge of activity in this field. In comparison with historical developments that can be traced back over more than a hundred years, the most recent developments are particularly interesting because they have been characterised by simultaneous input from multiple scientific disciplines: mathematics, statistics, machine learning, and computer science. The field has, therefore, advanced on a broad front, with contributions ranging from the building of overarching generaltheory to practical implementations in specific problems of interest. Over the same period of time, and because of increased interaction among researchers coming from different communities, the extent to which these developments were -- or were not -- presaged by twentieth-century researchers has also come to be better appreciated. Thus, the time appears to be ripe for an update of the 2014 Tübingen Manifesto on probabilistic numerics[Hennig, 2014, Osborne, 2014d,c,b,a] and the position paper[Hennig et al., 2015] to take account of the developments between 2014 and 2019, an improved awareness of the history of this field, and a clearer sense of its future directions. In this article, we aim to summarise some of the history of probabilistic perspectives on numerics (Section 2), to place more recent developments into context (Section 3), and to articulate a vision for future research in, and use of, probabilistic numerics (Section 4).