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Statistical Attribution & Optimization in the B2B World.

@machinelearnbot

There has been a lot of activity recently around revenue attribution - marketers want to develop a better understanding of their customer acquisition funnel and be able to measure progress against it. Most of this attention has been focused on the B2C space. However, less work has been done measuring the performance of B2B marketing activities. While Salesforce is an excellent platform for managing leads and campaigns, their business model is founded on developing a sales and marketing ecosystem comprising partnerships with specialist vendors that can provide more focused solutions to specific sales and marketing issues. As a result, companies such as Full Circle Insights, Bright Funnel and Bizable have emerged to fill the void in B2B marketing attribution by leveraging the Salesforce platform.


Statistical Attribution & Optimization in the B2B World.

@machinelearnbot

There has been a lot of activity recently around revenue attribution - marketers want to develop a better understanding of their customer acquisition funnel and be able to measure progress against it. Most of this attention has been focused on the B2C space. However, less work has been done measuring the performance of B2B marketing activities. While Salesforce is an excellent platform for managing leads and campaigns, their business model is founded on developing a sales and marketing ecosystem comprising partnerships with specialist vendors that can provide more focused solutions to specific sales and marketing issues. As a result, companies such as Full Circle Insights, Bright Funnel and Bizable have emerged to fill the void in B2B marketing attribution by leveraging the Salesforce platform.


Consistent feature attribution for tree ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Note that a newer expanded version of this paper is now available at: arXiv:1802.03888 It is critical in many applications to understand what features are important for a model, and why individual predictions were made. For tree ensemble methods these questions are usually answered by attributing importance values to input features, either globally or for a single prediction. Here we show that current feature attribution methods are inconsistent, which means changing the model to rely more on a given feature can actually decrease the importance assigned to that feature. To address this problem we develop fast exact solutions for SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values, which were recently shown to be the unique additive feature attribution method based on conditional expectations that is both consistent and locally accurate. We integrate these improvements into the latest version of XGBoost, demonstrate the inconsistencies of current methods, and show how using SHAP values results in significantly improved supervised clustering performance. Feature importance values are a key part of understanding widely used models such as gradient boosting trees and random forests, so improvements to them have broad practical implications.


Attribution Mask: Filtering Out Irrelevant Features By Recursively Focusing Attention on Inputs of DNNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attribution methods calculate attributions that visually explain the predictions of deep neural networks (DNNs) by highlighting important parts of the input features. In particular, gradient-based attribution (GBA) methods are widely used because they can be easily implemented through automatic differentiation. In this study, we use the attributions that filter out irrelevant parts of the input features and then verify the effectiveness of this approach by measuring the classification accuracy of a pre-trained DNN. This is achieved by calculating and applying an \textit{attribution mask} to the input features and subsequently introducing the masked features to the DNN, for which the mask is designed to recursively focus attention on the parts of the input related to the target label. The accuracy is enhanced under a certain condition, i.e., \textit{no implicit bias}, which can be derived based on our theoretical insight into compressing the DNN into a single-layer neural network. We also provide Gradient\,*\,Sign-of-Input (GxSI) to obtain the attribution mask that further improves the accuracy. As an example, on CIFAR-10 that is modified using the attribution mask obtained from GxSI, we achieve the accuracy ranging from 99.8\% to 99.9\% without additional training.


Measuring and improving the quality of visual explanations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The ability of to explain neural network decisions goes hand in hand with their safe deployment. Several methods have been proposed to highlight features important for a given network decision. However, there is no consensus on how to measure effectiveness of these methods. We propose a new procedure for evaluating explanations. We use it to investigate visual explanations extracted from a range of possible sources in a neural network. We quantify the benefit of combining these sources and challenge a recent appeal for taking bias parameters into account. We support our conclusions with a general assessment of the impact of bias parameters in ImageNet classifiers