Network Detection Theory and Performance Machine Learning

Network detection is an important capability in many areas of applied research in which data can be represented as a graph of entities and relationships. Oftentimes the object of interest is a relatively small subgraph in an enormous, potentially uninteresting background. This aspect characterizes network detection as a "big data" problem. Graph partitioning and network discovery have been major research areas over the last ten years, driven by interest in internet search, cyber security, social networks, and criminal or terrorist activities. The specific problem of network discovery is addressed as a special case of graph partitioning in which membership in a small subgraph of interest must be determined. Algebraic graph theory is used as the basis to analyze and compare different network detection methods. A new Bayesian network detection framework is introduced that partitions the graph based on prior information and direct observations. The new approach, called space-time threat propagation, is proved to maximize the probability of detection and is therefore optimum in the Neyman-Pearson sense. This optimality criterion is compared to spectral community detection approaches which divide the global graph into subsets or communities with optimal connectivity properties. We also explore a new generative stochastic model for covert networks and analyze using receiver operating characteristics the detection performance of both classes of optimal detection techniques.

A Geek's Guide to Machine Learning and Risk analytics and Decisioning Provenir


The greatest challenge when talking about artificial intelligence/machine learning is actually in understanding what data sets we are looking at, and what model/combination of models to apply. Amazon's Machine Learning offering is one example of an automated process which analyses the data and automatically selects the best model to use in the scenario. Other big players who have similar offerings are IBM Watson, Google and Microsoft. Provenir's clients are continually looking at new and innovative ways to improve their risk decisioning. Traditional banks offering consumer, SME and commercial loans and credit, auto lenders, payment providers and fintech companies are using Provenir technology to help them make faster and better decisions about potential fraud. Integrating artificial intelligence/machine learning capabilities into the risk decisioning process can increase the organization's ability to accurately assess the level of risk in order to detect and prevent fraud. Provenir provides model integration adaptors for machine learning models, including Amazon Machine Learning (AML) that can automatically listen for and label business-defined events, calculate attributes and update machine learning models. By combining Provenir technology with machine learning, organizations can increase both the efficiency and predictive accuracy of their risk decisioning.

On the Difficulty of Achieving Equilibrium in Interactive POMDPs

AAAI Conferences

We analyze the asymptotic behavior of agents engaged in an infinite horizon partially observable stochastic game as formalized by the interactive POMDP framework. We show that when agents' initial beliefs satisfy a truth compatibility condition, their behavior converges to a subjective ɛ-equilibrium in a finite time, and subjective equilibrium in the limit. This result is a generalization of a similar result in repeated games, to partially observable stochastic games. However, it turns out that the equilibrating process is difficult to demonstrate computationally because of the difficulty in coming up with initial beliefs that are both natural and satisfy the truth compatibility condition. Our results, therefore, shed some negative light on using equilibria as a solution concept for decision making in partially observable stochastic games.

Multiagent Stochastic Planning With Bayesian Policy Recognition

AAAI Conferences

When operating in stochastic, partially observable, multiagent settings, it is crucial to accurately predict the actions of other agents. In my thesis work, I propose methodologies for learning the policy of external agents from their observed behavior, in the form of finite state controllers. To perform this task, I adopt Bayesian learning algorithms based on nonparametric prior distributions, that provide the flexibility required to infer models of unknown complexity. These methods are to be embedded in decision making frameworks for autonomous planning in partially observable multiagent systems.

Neural Networks for Determining Protein Specificity and Multiple Alignment of Binding Sites

AAAI Conferences

Regulation of gene expression often involves proteins that bind to particular regions of DNA. Determining the binding sites for a protein and its specificity usually requires extensive biochemical and/or genetic experimentation. In this paper we illustrate the use of a neural network to obtain the desired information with much less experimental effort. It is often fairly easy to obtain a set of moderate length sequences, perhaps one or two hundred base-pairs, that each contain binding sites for the protein being studied. For example, the upstream regions of a set of genes that are all regulated by the same protein should each contain binding sites for that protein.