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### Training Factor Graphs with Reinforcement Learning for Efficient MAP Inference

Large, relational factor graphs with structure defined by first-order logic or other languages give rise to notoriously difficult inference problems. Because unrolling the structure necessary to represent distributions over all hypotheses has exponential blow-up, solutions are often derived from MCMC. However, because of limitations in the design and parameterization of the jump function, these sampling-based methods suffer from local minima the system must transition through lower-scoring configurations before arriving at a better MAP solution. This paper presents a new method of explicitly selecting fruitful downward jumps by leveraging reinforcement learning (RL). Rather than setting parameters to maximize the likelihood of the training data, parameters of the factor graph are treated as a log-linear function approximator and learned with temporal difference (TD); MAP inference is performed by executing the resulting policy on held out test data.

### Rapidly Mixing Gibbs Sampling for a Class of Factor Graphs Using Hierarchy Width

Gibbs sampling on factor graphs is a widely used inference technique, which often produces good empirical results. Theoretical guarantees for its performance are weak: even for tree structured graphs, the mixing time of Gibbs may be exponential in the number of variables. To help understand the behavior of Gibbs sampling, we introduce a new (hyper)graph property, called hierarchy width. We show that under suitable conditions on the weights, bounded hierarchy width ensures polynomial mixing time. Our study of hierarchy width is in part motivated by a class of factor graph templates, hierarchical templates, which have bounded hierarchy width—regardless of the data used to instantiate them. We demonstrate a rich application from natural language processing in which Gibbs sampling provably mixes rapidly and achieves accuracy that exceeds human volunteers.

### $\alpha$ Belief Propagation as Fully Factorized Approximation

Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is actually minimization of a localized $\alpha$-divergence. We term this algorithm as $\alpha$ belief propagation ($\alpha$-BP). The performance of $\alpha$-BP is tested in MAP (maximum a posterior) inference problems, where $\alpha$-BP can outperform (loopy) BP by a significant margin even in fully-connected graphs.

### Bounds on marginal probability distributions

We propose a novel bound on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The bound is obtained by propagating bounds (convex sets of probability distributions) over a subtree of the factor graph, rooted in the variable of interest. By construction, the method not only bounds the exact marginal probability distribution of a variable, but also its approximate Belief Propagation marginal ( belief''). Thus, apart from providing a practical means to calculate bounds on marginals, our contribution also lies in providing a better understanding of the error made by Belief Propagation. We show that our bound outperforms the state-of-the-art on some inference problems arising in medical diagnosis.

### Structured Prediction Theory Based on Factor Graph Complexity

We present a general theoretical analysis of structured prediction with a series of new results. We give new data-dependent margin guarantees for structured prediction for a very wide family of loss functions and a general family of hypotheses, with an arbitrary factor graph decomposition. These are the tightest margin bounds known for both standard multi-class and general structured prediction problems. Our guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent complexity measure, \emph{factor graph complexity}, which we show can be estimated from data and bounded in terms of familiar quantities for several commonly used hypothesis sets, and a sparsity measure for features and graphs. Our proof techniques include generalizations of Talagrand's contraction lemma that can be of independent interest. We further extend our theory by leveraging the principle of Voted Risk Minimization (VRM) and show that learning is possible even with complex factor graphs. We present new learning bounds for this advanced setting, which we use to devise two new algorithms, \emph{Voted Conditional Random Field} (VCRF) and \emph{Voted Structured Boosting} (StructBoost). These algorithms can make use of complex features and factor graphs and yet benefit from favorable learning guarantees. We also report the results of experiments with VCRF on several datasets to validate our theory.