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RobustSTL: A Robust Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Algorithm for Long Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decomposing complex time series into trend, seasonality, and remainder components is an important task to facilitate time series anomaly detection and forecasting. Although numerous methods have been proposed, there are still many time series characteristics exhibiting in real-world data which are not addressed properly, including 1) ability to handle seasonality fluctuation and shift, and abrupt change in trend and reminder; 2) robustness on data with anomalies; 3) applicability on time series with long seasonality period. In the paper, we propose a novel and generic time series decomposition algorithm to address these challenges. Specifically, we extract the trend component robustly by solving a regression problem using the least absolute deviations loss with sparse regularization. Based on the extracted trend, we apply the the non-local seasonal filtering to extract the seasonality component. This process is repeated until accurate decomposition is obtained. Experiments on different synthetic and real-world time series datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms existing solutions.


Time Series Anomaly Detection Algorithms – Stats and Bots

#artificialintelligence

At Statsbot, we're constantly reviewing the landscape of anomaly detection approaches and refinishing our models based on this research. This article is an overview of the most popular anomaly detection algorithms for time series and their pros and cons. This post is dedicated to non-experienced readers who just want to get a sense of the current state of anomaly detection techniques. Not wanting to scare you with mathematical models, we hid all the math under referral links. Anomaly detection problem for time series is usually formulated as finding outlier data points relative to some standard or usual signal.


Unsupervised Machine Learning Approaches for Outlier Detection in Time Series, using Python

#artificialintelligence

In this post, I cover some of my favorite methods for detecting outliers in time series data. There are many different approaches for detecting anomalous data points; for the sake of brevity, I only focus on unsupervised machine learning methods in this post. I deal with time series data a lot, and it's not uncommon for data sets to experience unexpected drops or spikes, flat lines, or phase shifts. Each of these situations qualifies as an'anomaly' -- something out of the ordinary when compared to the behavior of the sequence as a whole. Detecting anomalies in a time series is important for a variety of reasons.


RobustTAD: Robust Time Series Anomaly Detection via Decomposition and Convolutional Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The monitoring and management of numerous and diverse time series data at Alibaba Group calls for an effective and scalable time series anomaly detection service. In this paper, we propose RobustTAD, a Robust Time series Anomaly Detection framework by integrating robust seasonal-trend decomposition and convolutional neural network for time series data. The seasonal-trend decomposition can effectively handle complicated patterns in time series, and meanwhile significantly simplifies the architecture of the neural network, which is an encoder-decoder architecture with skip connections. This architecture can effectively capture the multi-scale information from time series, which is very useful in anomaly detection. Due to the limited labeled data in time series anomaly detection, we systematically investigate data augmentation methods in both time and frequency domains. We also introduce label-based weight and value-based weight in the loss function by utilizing the unbalanced nature of the time series anomaly detection problem. Compared with the widely used forecasting-based anomaly detection algorithms, decomposition-based algorithms, traditional statistical algorithms, as well as recent neural network based algorithms, RobustTAD performs significantly better on public benchmark datasets. It is deployed as a public online service and widely adopted in different business scenarios at Alibaba Group.


Moving Metric Detection and Alerting System at eBay

arXiv.org Machine Learning

At eBay, there are thousands of product health metrics for different domain teams to monitor. We built a two-phase alerting system to notify users with actionable alerts based on anomaly detection and alert retrieval. In the first phase, we developed an efficient anomaly detection algorithm, called Moving Metric Detector (MMD), to identify potential alerts among metrics with distribution agnostic criteria. In the second alert retrieval phase, we built additional logic with feedbacks to select valid actionable alerts with point-wise ranking model and business rules. Compared with other trend and seasonality decomposition methods, our decomposer is faster and better to detect anomalies in unsupervised cases. Our two-phase approach dramatically improves alert precision and avoids alert spamming in eBay production.