Goto

Collaborating Authors

Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Project Conceptual Cost Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing a reliable parametric cost model at the conceptual stage of the project is crucial for projects managers and decision-makers. Existing methods, such as probabilistic and statistical algorithms have been developed for project cost prediction. However, these methods are unable to produce accurate results for conceptual cost prediction due to small and unstable data samples. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms include numerous models and algorithms for supervised regression applications. Therefore, a comparison analysis for AI models is required to guide practitioners to the appropriate model. The study focuses on investigating twenty artificial intelligence (AI) techniques which are conducted for cost modeling such as fuzzy logic (FL) model, artificial neural networks (ANNs), multiple regression analysis (MRA), case-based reasoning (CBR), hybrid models, and ensemble methods such as scalable boosting trees (XGBoost). Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are used as an actual case study to analyze the performance of the applied ML models. Out of 20 AI techniques, the results showed that the most accurate and suitable method is XGBoost with 9.091% and 0.929 based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and adjusted R2. Nonlinear adaptability, handling missing values and outliers, model interpretation and uncertainty have been discussed for the twenty developed AI models. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Machine learning, ensemble methods, XGBoost, evolutionary fuzzy rules generation, Conceptual cost, and parametric cost model.


Quantifying Uncertainty in Risk Assessment using Fuzzy Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Risk specialists are trying to understand risk better and use complex models for risk assessment, while many risks are not yet well understood. The lack of empirical data and complex causal and outcome relationships make it difficult to estimate the degree to which certain risk types are exposed. Traditional risk models are based on classical set theory. In comparison, fuzzy logic models are built on fuzzy set theory and are useful for analyzing risks with insufficient knowledge or inaccurate data. Fuzzy logic systems help to make large-scale risk management frameworks more simple. For risks that do not have an appropriate probability model, a fuzzy logic system can help model the cause and effect relationships, assess the level of risk exposure, rank key risks in a consistent way, and consider available data and experts'opinions. Besides, in fuzzy logic systems, some rules explicitly explain the connection, dependence, and relationships between model factors. This can help identify risk mitigation solutions. Resources can be used to mitigate risks with very high levels of exposure and relatively low hedging costs. Fuzzy set and fuzzy logic models can be used with Bayesian and other types of method recognition and decision models, including artificial neural networks and decision tree models. These developed models have the potential to solve difficult risk assessment problems. This research paper explores areas in which fuzzy logic models can be used to improve risk assessment and risk decision making. We will discuss the methodology, framework, and process of using fuzzy logic systems in risk assessment.


Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Models for Prediction of Remaining Useful Life

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The U.S. water distribution system contains thousands of miles of pipes constructed from different materials, and of various sizes, and age. These pipes suffer from physical, environmental, structural and operational stresses, causing deterioration which eventually leads to their failure. Pipe deterioration results in increased break rates, reduced hydraulic capacity, and detrimental impacts on water quality. Therefore, it is crucial to use accurate models to forecast deterioration rates along with estimating the remaining useful life of the pipes to implement essential interference plans in order to prevent catastrophic failures. This paper discusses a computational model that forecasts the RUL of water pipes by applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as well as Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). These models are trained and tested acquired field data to identify the significant parameters that impact the prediction of RUL. It is concluded that, on average, with approximately 10\% of wall thickness loss in existing cast iron, ductile iron, asbestos-cement, and steel water pipes, the reduction of the remaining useful life is approximately 50%


Deep Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Networks for Intellectual Analysis of Economic Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In tis paper we consider approaches for time series forecasting based on deep neural networks and neuro-fuzzy nets. Also, we make short review of researches in forecasting based on various models of ANFIS models. Deep Learning has proven to be an effective method for making highly accurate predictions from complex data sources. Also, we propose our models of DL and Neuro-Fuzzy Networks for this task. Finally, we show possibility of using these models for data science tasks. This paper presents also an overview of approaches for incorporating rule-based methodology into deep learning neural networks.


Optimal Fuzzy Model Construction with Statistical Information using Genetic Algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzzy rule based models have a capability to approximate any continuous function to any degree of accuracy on a compact domain. The majority of FLC design process relies on heuristic knowledge of experience operators. In order to make the design process automatic we present a genetic approach to learn fuzzy rules as well as membership function parameters. Moreover, several statistical information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bhansali-Downham information criterion (BDIC), and the Schwarz-Rissanen information criterion (SRIC) are used to construct optimal fuzzy models by reducing fuzzy rules. A genetic scheme is used to design Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) model for identification of the antecedent rule parameters and the identification of the consequent parameters. Computer simulations are presented confirming the performance of the constructed fuzzy logic controller.