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Uncertainty quantification of molecular property prediction using Bayesian neural network models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of state-of-the-art models and algorithms, deep neural network models often produce poor predictions in real applications because model performance is highly dependent on the quality of training data. In the field of molecular analysis, data are mostly obtained from either complicated chemical experiments or approximate mathematical equations, and then quality of data may be questioned. In this paper, we quantify uncertainties of prediction using Bayesian neural networks in molecular property predictions. We estimate both model-driven and data-driven uncertainties, demonstrating the usefulness of uncertainty quantification as both a quality checker and a confidence indicator with the three experiments. Our results manifest that uncertainty quantification is necessary for more reliable molecular applications and Bayesian neural network models can be a practical approach.


Uncertainty quantification of molecular property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from insufficient quality and quantity of training data. Here, we show that Bayesian neural networks are useful to quantify the uncertainty of molecular property prediction with three numerical experiments. In particular, it enables us to decompose the predictive variance into the model- and data-driven uncertainties, which helps to elucidate the source of errors. In the logP predictions, we show that data noise affected the data-driven uncertainties more significantly than the model-driven ones. Based on this analysis, we were able to find unexpected errors in the Harvard Clean Energy Project dataset. Lastly, we show that the confidence of prediction is closely related to the predictive uncertainty by performing on bio-activity and toxicity classification problems.


Confidence Calibration in Deep Neural Networks through Stochastic Inferences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence (score) of a prediction through stochastic inferences in deep neural networks. We first analyze relation between variation of multiple model parameters for a single example inference and variance of the corresponding prediction scores by Bayesian modeling of stochastic regularization. Our empirical observation shows that accuracy and score of a prediction are highly correlated with variance of multiple stochastic inferences given by stochastic depth or dropout. Motivated by these facts, we design a novel variance-weighted confidence-integrated loss function that is composed of two cross-entropy loss terms with respect to ground-truth and uniform distribution, which are balanced by variance of stochastic prediction scores. The proposed loss function enables us to learn deep neural networks that predict confidence calibrated scores using a single inference. Our algorithm presents outstanding confidence calibration performance and improves classification accuracy with two popular stochastic regularization techniques---stochastic depth and dropout---in multiple models and datasets; it alleviates overconfidence issue in deep neural networks significantly by training networks to achieve prediction accuracy proportional to confidence of prediction.


Edge Attention-based Multi-Relational Graph Convolutional Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph convolutional network (GCN) is generalization of convolutional neural network (CNN) to work with arbitrarily structured graphs. A binary adjacency matrix is commonly used in training a GCN. Recently, the attention mechanism allows the network to learn a dynamic and adaptive aggregation of the neighborhood. We propose a new GCN model on the graphs where edges are characterized in multiple views or precisely in terms of multiple relationships. For instance, in chemical graph theory, compound structures are often represented by the hydrogen-depleted molecular graph where nodes correspond to atoms and edges correspond to chemical bonds. Multiple attributes can be important to characterize chemical bonds, such as atom pair (the types of atoms that a bond connects), aromaticity, and whether a bond is in a ring. The different attributes lead to different graph representations for the same molecule. There is growing interests in both chemistry and machine learning fields to directly learn molecular properties of compounds from the molecular graph, instead of from fingerprints predefined by chemists. The proposed GCN model, which we call edge attention-based multi-relational GCN (EAGCN), jointly learns attention weights and node features in graph convolution. For each bond attribute, a real-valued attention matrix is used to replace the binary adjacency matrix. By designing a dictionary for the edge attention, and forming the attention matrix of each molecule by looking up the dictionary, the EAGCN exploits correspondence between bonds in different molecules. The prediction of compound properties is based on the aggregated node features, which is independent of the varying molecule (graph) size. We demonstrate the efficacy of the EAGCN on multiple chemical datasets: Tox21, HIV, Freesolv, and Lipophilicity, and interpret the resultant attention weights.


BayesGrad: Explaining Predictions of Graph Convolutional Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in graph convolutional networks have significantly improved the performance of chemical predictions, raising a new research question: "how do we explain the predictions of graph convolutional networks?" A possible approach to answer this question is to visualize evidence substructures responsible for the predictions. For chemical property prediction tasks, the sample size of the training data is often small and/or a label imbalance problem occurs, where a few samples belong to a single class and the majority of samples belong to the other classes. This can lead to uncertainty related to the learned parameters of the machine learning model. To address this uncertainty, we propose BayesGrad, utilizing the Bayesian predictive distribution, to define the importance of each node in an input graph, which is computed efficiently using the dropout technique. We demonstrate that BayesGrad successfully visualizes the substructures responsible for the label prediction in the artificial experiment, even when the sample size is small. Furthermore, we use a real dataset to evaluate the effectiveness of the visualization. The basic idea of BayesGrad is not limited to graph-structured data and can be applied to other data types.