Goto

Collaborating Authors

Results


Predicting Strategic Behavior from Free Text

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The connection between messaging and action is fundamental both to web applications, such as web search and sentiment analysis, and to economics. However, while prominent online applications exploit messaging in natural (human) language in order to predict non-strategic action selection, the economics literature focuses on the connection between structured stylized messaging to strategic decisions in games and multi-agent encounters. This paper aims to connect these two strands of research, which we consider highly timely and important due to the vast online textual communication on the web. Particularly, we introduce the following question: Can free text expressed in natural language serve for the prediction of action selection in an economic context, modeled as a game? In order to initiate the research on this question, we introduce the study of an individual's action prediction in a one-shot game based on free text he/she provides, while being unaware of the game to be played. We approach the problem by attributing commonsensical personality attributes via crowd-sourcing to free texts written by individuals, and employing transductive learning to predict actions taken by these individuals in one-shot games based on these attributes. Our approach allows us to train a single classifier that can make predictions with respect to actions taken in multiple games. In experiments with three well-studied games, our algorithm compares favorably with strong alternative approaches. In ablation analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our modeling choices--the representation of the text with the commonsensical personality attributes and our classifier--to the predictive power of our model.


Real World Games Look Like Spinning Tops

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper investigates the geometrical properties of real world games (e.g. Tic-Tac-Toe, Go, StarCraft II). We hypothesise that their geometrical structure resemble a spinning top, with the upright axis representing transitive strength, and the radial axis, which corresponds to the number of cycles that exist at a particular transitive strength, representing the non-transitive dimension. We prove the existence of this geometry for a wide class of real world games, exposing their temporal nature. Additionally, we show that this unique structure also has consequences for learning - it clarifies why populations of strategies are necessary for training of agents, and how population size relates to the structure of the game. Finally, we empirically validate these claims by using a selection of nine real world two-player zero-sum symmetric games, showing 1) the spinning top structure is revealed and can be easily re-constructed by using a new method of Nash clustering to measure the interaction between transitive and cyclical strategy behaviour, and 2) the effect that population size has on the convergence in these games.


Predicting Strategic Behavior from Free Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The connection between messaging and action is fundamental both to web applications, such as web search and sentiment analysis, and to economics. However, while prominent online applications exploit messaging in natural (human) language in order to predict non-strategic action selection, the economics literature focuses on the connection between structured stylized messaging to strategic decisions in games and multi-agent encounters. This paper aims to connect these two strands of research, which we consider highly timely and important due to the vast online textual communication on the web. Particularly, we introduce the following question: can free text expressed in natural language serve for the prediction of action selection in an economic context, modeled as a game? In order to initiate the research on this question, we introduce the study of an individual's action prediction in a one-shot game based on free text he/she provides, while being unaware of the game to be played. We approach the problem by attributing commonsensical personality attributes via crowd-sourcing to free texts written by individuals, and employing transductive learning to predict actions taken by these individuals in one-shot games based on these attributes. Our approach allows us to train a single classifier that can make predictions with respect to actions taken in multiple games. In experiments with three well-studied games, our algorithm compares favorably with strong alternative approaches. In ablation analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our modeling choices -- the representation of the text with the commonsensical personality attributes and our classifier -- to the predictive power of our model.


No-regret learning dynamics for extensive-form correlated and coarse correlated equilibria

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, there has been growing interest around less-restrictive solution concepts than Nash equilibrium in extensive-form games, with significant effort towards the computation of extensive-form correlated equilibrium (EFCE) and extensive-form coarse correlated equilibrium (EFCCE). In this paper, we show how to leverage the popular counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) paradigm to induce simple no-regret dynamics that converge to the set of EFCEs and EFCCEs in an n-player general-sum extensive-form games. For EFCE, we define a notion of internal regret suitable for extensive-form games and exhibit an efficient no-internal-regret algorithm. These results complement those for normal-form games introduced in the seminal paper by Hart and Mas-Colell. For EFCCE, we show that no modification of CFR is needed, and that in fact the empirical frequency of play generated when all the players use the original CFR algorithm converges to the set of EFCCEs.


Provable Sample Complexity Guarantees for Learning of Continuous-Action Graphical Games with Nonparametric Utilities

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Game theory has been extensively used as a framework to model and study the strategic interactions amongst rational but selfish individual players who are trying to maximize their payoffs. Game theory has been applied in many fields including but not limited to social and political science, economics, communication, system design and computer science. In non-cooperative games each player decides its action based on the actions of others players. These games are characterized by the equilibrium solution concept such as Nash equilibrium (NE) [18] which serves a descriptive role of the stable outcome of the overall behavior of self-interested players (e.g., people, companies, governments, groups or autonomous systems) interacting strategically with each other in distributed settings. Graphical games, introduced within the AI community about two decades ago, graphical games [16], are a representation of multiplayer games which capture and exploit locality or sparsity of direct influences. They are most appropriate for large-scale population games in which the payoffs of each player are determined by the actions of only a small number of other players. Indeed, graphical games played a prominent role in establishing the computational complexity of computing NE in normal-form games as well as in succinctly representable multiplayer games (see, e.g., [5, 6, 7] and the references therein). Graphical games have been studied for both discrete and continuous actions.


Microsoft's AI Experiments Are Creating Unbeatable Raid Bosses

#artificialintelligence

Raid bosses are the toughest fights in any massively multiplayer online game, but eventually players always find ways to crack them. Now developers are looking at ways to use cloud computing to give raid bosses a way of fighting back. During one of Microsoft's Game Stack developer livestreams yesterday, software engineer James Trott said that as developers are able to use the resources of the cloud to update and improve their games in real time, the real difficulty will be in not making them too hard. "We worked on a project with Microsoft tech last year for an MMO-like system for bosses that learn player behaviors in raid encounters," Trott said. "As raids go on and people find dominant strategies, the bosses adapt in near real time [and] detect the strategies players are implementing."


Optimising Game Tactics for Football

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we present a novel approach to optimise tactical and strategic decision making in football (soccer). We model the game of football as a multi-stage game which is made up from a Bayesian game to model the pre-match decisions and a stochastic game to model the in-match state transitions and decisions. Using this formulation, we propose a method to predict the probability of game outcomes and the payoffs of team actions. Building upon this, we develop algorithms to optimise team formation and in-game tactics with different objectives. Empirical evaluation of our approach on real-world datasets from 760 matches shows that by using optimised tactics from our Bayesian and stochastic games, we can increase a team chances of winning by up to 16.1\% and 3.4\% respectively.


A Crash Course in Game Theory for Machine Learning: Classic and New Ideas - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

Game theory is one of the most fascinating areas of mathematics that have influenced diverse fields such as economics, social sciences, biology and, obviously, computer science. Games are playing a key role in the evolution of artificial intelligence(AI). For starters, game environments are becoming a popular training mechanism in areas such as reinforcement learning or imitation learning. In theory, any multi-agent AI system can be subjected to gamified interactions between its participants. The branch of mathematics that formulates the principles of games is known as game theory.


Value Variance Minimization for Learning Approximate Equilibrium in Aggregation Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For effective matching of resources (e.g., taxis, food, bikes, shopping items) to customer demand, aggregation systems have been extremely successful. In aggregation systems, a central entity (e.g., Uber, Food Panda, Ofo) aggregates supply (e.g., drivers, delivery personnel) and matches demand to supply on a continuous basis (sequential decisions). Due to the objective of the central entity to maximize its profits, individual suppliers get sacrificed thereby creating incentive for individuals to leave the system. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning approximate equilibrium solutions (win-win solutions) in aggregation systems, so that individuals have an incentive to remain in the aggregation system. Unfortunately, such systems have thousands of agents and have to consider demand uncertainty and the underlying problem is a (Partially Observable) Stochastic Game. Given the significant complexity of learning or planning in a stochastic game, we make three key contributions: (a) To exploit infinitesimally small contribution of each agent and anonymity (reward and transitions between agents are dependent on agent counts) in interactions, we represent this as a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) problem that builds on insights from non-atomic congestion games model; (b) We provide a novel variance reduction mechanism for moving joint solution towards Nash Equilibrium that exploits the infinitesimally small contribution of each agent; and finally (c) We provide detailed results on three different domains to demonstrate the utility of our approach in comparison to state-of-the-art methods.


A General Framework for Learning Mean-Field Games

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper is motivated by the following Ad auction problem for an advertiser. An Ad auction is a stochastic game on an Ad exchange platform among a large number of players, the advertisers. In between the time a web user requests a page and the time the page is displayed, usually within a millisecond, a Vickrey-type of second-best-price auction is run to incentivize interested advertisers to bid for an Ad slot to display advertisement. Each advertiser has limited information before each bid: first, her own valuation for a slot depends on an unknown conversion of clicks for the item; secondly, she, should she win the bid, only knows the reward after the user's activities on the website are finished. In addition, she has a budget constraint in this repeated auction. The question is, how should she bid in this online sequential repeated game when there is a large population of bidders competing on the Ad platform, with unknown distributions of the conversion of clicks and rewards? Besides the Ad auction, there are many real-world problems involving a large number of players and unknown systems. Examples include massive multi-player online roleplaying games [30], high frequency tradings [35], and the sharing economy [24].