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Make the Best of Machine Learning in simple ways

#artificialintelligence

You must have heard about machine learning as it has become a buzzword. Machine learning is an innovative method of analyzing data that has the capability to automate analytical model building. It is a field of computer science and an important branch of artificial intelligence. Machine learning is based on the revolutionary idea that computer systems could learn from data, just like humans. As a result, they can identify patterns and make informed decisions without resorting to much human intervention. Machine learning is now a keyword in the world of technology.


Time Series Analysis & Predictive Modeling Using Supervised Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Time-Series involves temporal datasets that change over a period of time and time-based attributes are of paramount importance in these datasets. The trading prices of stocks change constantly over time, and reflect various unmeasured factors such as market confidence, external influences, and other driving forces that may be hard to identify or measure. There are hypothesis like the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which says that it is almost impossible to beat the market consistently and there are others which disagree with it. Forecasting the future value of a given stock is a crucial task as investing in stock market involves higher risk.. Here, given the historical daily close price for Dow-Jones Index, we would like to prepare and compare forecasting models. The black swan theory, which predicts that anomalous events, such as a stock market crash, are much more likely to occur than would be predicted by the normal distribution.


Predicting Used Car Prices with Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

The prices of new cars in the industry is fixed by the manufacturer with some additional costs incurred by the Government in the form of taxes. So, customers buying a new car can be assured of the money they invest to be worthy. But due to the increased price of new cars and the incapability of customers to buy new cars due to the lack of funds, used cars sales are on a global increase (Pal, Arora and Palakurthy, 2018). There is a need for a used car price prediction system to effectively determine the worthiness of the car using a variety of features. Even though there are websites that offers this service, their prediction method may not be the best. Besides, different models and systems may contribute on predicting power for a used car's actual market value. It is important to know their actual market value while both buying and selling. To be able to predict used cars market value can help both buyers and sellers. Used car sellers (dealers): They are one of the biggest target group that can be interested in results of this study. If used car sellers better understand what makes a car desirable, what the important features are for a used car, then they may consider this knowledge and offer a better service. Online pricing services: There are websites that offers an estimate value of a car. They may have a good prediction model.


Eigendecomposition of Q in Equally Constrained Quadratic Programming

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When applying eigenvalue decomposition on the quadratic term matrix in a type of linear equally constrained quadratic programming (EQP), there exists a linear mapping to project optimal solutions between the new EQP formulation where $Q$ is diagonalized and the original formulation. Although such a mapping requires a particular type of equality constraints, it is generalizable to some real problems such as efficient frontier for portfolio allocation and classification of Least Square Support Vector Machines (LSSVM). The established mapping could be potentially useful to explore optimal solutions in subspace, but it is not very clear to the author. This work was inspired by similar work proved on unconstrained formulation discussed earlier in \cite{Tan}, but its current proof is much improved and generalized. To the author's knowledge, very few similar discussion appears in literature.


A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.


Latent Bayesian Inference for Robust Earnings Estimates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Equity research analysts at financial institutions play a pivotal role in capital markets; they provide an efficient conduit between investors and companies' management and facilitate the efficient flow of information from companies, promoting functional and liquid markets. However, previous research in the academic finance and behavioral economics communities has found that analysts' estimates of future company earnings and other financial quantities can be affected by a number of behavioral, incentive-based and discriminatory biases and systematic errors, which can detrimentally affect both investors and public companies. We propose a Bayesian latent variable model for analysts' systematic errors and biases which we use to generate a robust bias-adjusted consensus estimate of company earnings. Experiments using historical earnings estimates data show that our model is more accurate than the consensus average of estimates and other related approaches.


How cloud unlocks the value of time series data

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Time series data is unique as it accumulates more quickly than other types of data because of its nature: each record is a new record, not an update or replacement. With this influx of time series data at a rapid rate, storing and querying data can become problematic. Relational and NoSQL databases are not optimised for such extremely large datasets with the same extent of analytics capabilities; time series databases (TSDBs) are needed as they can handle higher ingest rates, faster queries at scale and can better prepare time series data for analytics by bucketing and visualising data more efficiently. To unlock the value of time series data, organisations must be able to store data that accumulates quickly and query it in a performant way. Capital markets firms utilise vast amounts of historical and streaming data to perform real-time analytics and inform decision-making.


Industrial Forecasting with Exponentially Smoothed Recurrent Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Industrial forecasting has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling methodologies. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand and irreconcilable with more traditional statistical modeling approaches. We present a general class of exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are well suited to modeling non-stationary dynamical systems arising in industrial applications such as electricity load management and financial risk and trading. In particular, we analyze their capacity to characterize the non-linear partial autocorrelation structure of time series and directly capture dynamic effects such as seasonality and regime changes. Application of exponentially smoothed RNNs to electricity load forecasting, weather data and financial time series, such as minute level Bitcoin prices and CME futures tick data, highlight the efficacy of exponential smoothing for multi-step time series forecasting. The results also suggest that popular, but more complicated neural network architectures originally designed for speech processing, such as LSTMs and GRUs, are likely over-engineered for industrial forecasting and light-weight exponentially smoothed architectures capture the salient features while being superior and more robust than simple RNNs.


QuantNet: Transferring Learning Across Systematic Trading Strategies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work we introduce QuantNet: an architecture that is capable of transferring knowledge over systematic trading strategies in several financial markets. By having a system that is able to leverage and share knowledge across them, our aim is two-fold: to circumvent the so-called Backtest Overfitting problem; and to generate higher risk-adjusted returns and fewer drawdowns. To do that, QuantNet exploits a form of modelling called Transfer Learning, where two layers are market-specific and another one is market-agnostic. This ensures that the transfer occurs across trading strategies, with the market-agnostic layer acting as a vehicle to share knowledge, cross-influence each strategy parameters, and ultimately the trading signal produced. In order to evaluate QuantNet, we compared its performance in relation to the option of not performing transfer learning, that is, using market-specific old-fashioned machine learning. In summary, our findings suggest that QuantNet performs better than non transfer-based trading strategies, improving Sharpe ratio in 15% and Calmar ratio in 41% across 3103 assets in 58 equity markets across the world. Code coming soon.


Anomaly Detection in Univariate Time-series: A Survey on the State-of-the-Art

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Anomaly detection for time-series data has been an important research field for a long time. Seminal work on anomaly detection methods has been focussing on statistical approaches. In recent years an increasing number of machine learning algorithms have been developed to detect anomalies on time-series. Subsequently, researchers tried to improve these techniques using (deep) neural networks. In the light of the increasing number of anomaly detection methods, the body of research lacks a broad comparative evaluation of statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods. This paper studies 20 univariate anomaly detection methods from the all three categories. The evaluation is conducted on publicly available datasets, which serve as benchmarks for time-series anomaly detection. By analyzing the accuracy of each method as well as the computation time of the algorithms, we provide a thorough insight about the performance of these anomaly detection approaches, alongside some general notion of which method is suited for a certain type of data.