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Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This research paper explores the performance of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and techniques that can be used for financial asset price forecasting. The prediction and forecasting of asset prices and returns remains one of the most challenging and exciting problems for quantitative finance and practitioners alike. The massive increase in data generated and captured in recent years presents an opportunity to leverage Machine Learning algorithms. This study directly compares and contrasts state-of-the-art implementations of modern Machine Learning algorithms on high performance computing (HPC) infrastructures versus the traditional and highly popular Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on U.S equities data. The implemented Machine Learning models - trained on time series data for an entire stock universe (in addition to exogenous macroeconomic variables) significantly outperform the CAPM on out-of-sample (OOS) test data.


Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time-series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to demonstrate this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms as specific cases. We further identify via theoretical analysis the meta-learning adaptation mechanisms within N-BEATS, a recent neural TS forecasting model. Our meta-learning theory predicts that N-BEATS iteratively generates a subset of its task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. Our empirical results emphasize the importance of meta-learning for successful zero-shot forecasting to new sources of TS, supporting the claim that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.


Transport Gaussian Processes for Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and inference, and are governed by interpretable hyperparameters. However, GP models rely on Gaussianity, an assumption that does not hold in several real-world scenarios, e.g., when observations are bounded or have extreme-value dependencies, a natural phenomenon in physics, finance and social sciences. Although beyond-Gaussian stochastic processes have caught the attention of the GP community, a principled definition and rigorous treatment is still lacking. In this regard, we propose a methodology to construct stochastic processes, which include GPs, warped GPs, Student-t processes and several others under a single unified approach. We also provide formulas and algorithms for training and inference of the proposed models in the regression problem. Our approach is inspired by layers-based models, where each proposed layer changes a specific property over the generated stochastic process. That, in turn, allows us to push-forward a standard Gaussian white noise prior towards other more expressive stochastic processes, for which marginals and copulas need not be Gaussian, while retaining the appealing properties of GPs. We validate the proposed model through experiments with real-world data.


Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Financial time series forecasting is, without a doubt, the top choice of computational intelligence for finance researchers from both academia and financial industry due to its broad implementation areas and substantial impact. Machine Learning (ML) researchers came up with various models and a vast number of studies have been published accordingly. As such, a significant amount of surveys exist covering ML for financial time series forecasting studies. Lately, Deep Learning (DL) models started appearing within the field, with results that significantly outperform traditional ML counterparts. Even though there is a growing interest in developing models for financial time series forecasting research, there is a lack of review papers that were solely focused on DL for finance. Hence, our motivation in this paper is to provide a comprehensive literature review on DL studies for financial time series forecasting implementations. We not only categorized the studies according to their intended forecasting implementation areas, such as index, forex, commodity forecasting, but also grouped them based on their DL model choices, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). We also tried to envision the future for the field by highlighting the possible setbacks and opportunities, so the interested researchers can benefit.


Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has been proven to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation [1]. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) [2] to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions can be both categorical and continuous variables containing different kinds of auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN is able to learn different kinds of normal and heavy tail distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series and it can further generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with the training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale of GAN and the neural network as hierarchical splines to draw a clear connection with the existing statistical method for distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in the market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn the historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) and predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate CGAN is able to outperform the Historic Simulation, a popular method in market risk analysis for the calculation of VaR. CGAN can also be applied in the economic time series modeling and forecasting, and an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN is given at the end of the paper.