NG Bias w/ US Nuclear Capacity Outage Data from EIA


A lot of nat gas analysts would at times reference EIA's Nuclear Capacity Outage (NCO henceforth), yet I haven't seen anyone do a detailed explanation of how they apply it toward an objective bias in implied Nat Gas demand, i.e. Fair Value bias going forward expected by traders paying attention to NCO. So I got curious, and first look at NG prices vs. YOY change in NCOs: So it looks like there is likely somewhat of a rough relationship, that some traders are paying attention to it. Then the next step would be an attempt toward precision via Time Series Analysis. So, what I'd do here is a 2 Step Machine Learning process of 1) Forecast expected NCO for the rest of 2019, then apply that to estimate Natural Gas futures fair value bias going forward.

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