Geometric Learning and Filtering in Finance

Kratsios, Anastasis, Hyndman, Cody B. Machine Learning 

We develop a method for incorporating relevant non-Euclidean geometric information into a broad range of classical filtering and statistical or machine learning algorithms. We apply these techniques to approximate the solution of the non-Euclidean filtering problem to arbitrary precision. We then extend the particle filtering algorithm to compute our asymptotic solution to arbitrary precision. Moreover, we find explicit error bounds measuring the discrepancy between our locally triangulated filter and the true theoretical non-Euclidean filter. Our methods are motivated by certain fundamental problems in mathematical finance. In particular we apply these filtering techniques to incorporate the non-Euclidean geometry present in stochastic volatility models and optimal Markowitz portfolios. We also extend Euclidean statistical or machine learning algorithms to non-Euclidean problems by using the local triangulation technique, which we show improves the accuracy of the original algorithm. We apply the local triangulation method to obtain improvements of the (sparse) principal component analysis and the principal geodesic analysis algorithms and show how these improved algorithms can be used to parsimoniously estimate the evolution of the shape of forward-rate curves. While focused on financial applications, the non-Euclidean geometric techniques presented in this paper can be employed to provide improvements to a range of other statistical or machine learning algorithms and may be useful in other areas of application.

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