"The field of Machine Learning seeks to answer these questions: How can we build computer systems that automatically improve with experience, and what are the fundamental laws that govern all learning processes?"
– from The Discipline of Machine Learning by Tom Mitchell. CMU-ML-06-108, 2006.
Scaling feature values is an important step in numerous machine learning tasks. Different features can have different value ranges and some form of a feature scaling is often required in order to learn an accurate classifier. However, feature scaling is conducted as a preprocessing task prior to learning. This is problematic in an online setting because of two reasons. First, it might not be possible to accurately determine the value range of a feature at the initial stages of learning when we have observed only a few number of training instances. Second, the distribution of data can change over the time, which render obsolete any feature scaling that we perform in a pre-processing step. We propose a simple but an effective method to dynamically scale features at train time, thereby quickly adapting to any changes in the data stream. We compare the proposed dynamic feature scaling method against more complex methods for estimating scaling parameters using several benchmark datasets for binary classification. Our proposed feature scaling method consistently outperforms more complex methods on all of the benchmark datasets and improves classification accuracy of a state-of-the-art online binary classifier algorithm.
A general notion of algebraic conditional plausibility measures is defined. Probability measures, ranking functions, possibility measures, and (under the appropriate definitions) sets of probability measures can all be viewed as defining algebraic conditional plausibility measures. It is shown that the technology of Bayesian networks can be applied to algebraic conditional plausibility measures.
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not be true in many situations of interest. We define a new framework, MDPs with unawareness (MDPUs) to deal with the possibilities that a DM may not be aware of all possible actions. We provide a complete characterization of when a DM can learn to play near-optimally in an MDPU, and give an algorithm that learns to play near-optimally when it is possible to do so, as efficiently as possible. In particular, we characterize when a near-optimal solution can be found in polynomial time.
We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set P of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable X takes on value x, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from P. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between conditioning and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities.
It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information if your uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures. These include situations in which the information is relevant for the prediction task at hand. In the non-Bayesian analysis, we show how ignoring information avoids dilation, the phenomenon that additional pieces of information sometimes lead to an increase in uncertainty. In the Bayesian analysis, we show that for small sample sizes and certain prediction tasks, the Bayesian posterior based on a noninformative prior yields worse predictions than simply ignoring the given information.
We introduce a logic for reasoning about evidence, that essentially views evidence as a function from prior beliefs (before making an observation) to posterior beliefs (after making the observation). We provide a sound and complete axiomatization for the logic, and consider the complexity of the decision problem. Although the reasoning in the logic is mainly propositional, we allow variables representing numbers and quantification over them. This expressive power seems necessary to capture important properties of evidence
It is well known that good initializations can improve the speed and accuracy of the solutions of many nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms. Many NMF algorithms are sensitive with respect to the initialization of W or H or both. This is especially true of algorithms of the alternating least squares (ALS) type, including the two new ALS algorithms that we present in this paper. We compare the results of six initialization procedures (two standard and four new) on our ALS algorithms. Lastly, we discuss the practical issue of choosing an appropriate convergence criterion.
In several applications of automatic diagnosis and active learning a central problem is the evaluation of a discrete function by adaptively querying the values of its variables until the values read uniquely determine the value of the function. In general, the process of reading the value of a variable might involve some cost, computational or even a fee to be paid for the experiment required for obtaining the value. This cost should be taken into account when deciding the next variable to read. The goal is to design a strategy for evaluating the function incurring little cost (in the worst case or in expectation according to a prior distribution on the possible variables' assignments). Our algorithm builds a strategy (decision tree) which attains a logarithmic approxima- tion simultaneously for the expected and worst cost spent. This is best possible under the assumption that $P \neq NP.$
In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection criterion, most often the Bayesian information criterion. Rather than throw away all but the best model, we average multiple models that are in some sense close to the best one, thereby producing a weighted average of clustering results. Two (weighted) averaging approaches are considered: averaging the component membership probabilities and averaging models. In both cases, Occam's window is used to determine closeness to the best model and weights are computed within a Bayesian model averaging paradigm. In some cases, we need to merge components before averaging; we introduce a method for merging mixture components based on the adjusted Rand index. The effectiveness of our model-based clustering averaging approaches is illustrated using a family of Gaussian mixture models on real and simulated data.
This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer latent structure, and cope with large numbers of observed processes. A further novel contribution enables the model to work effectively in higher dimensional spaces. Using this method, we achieve vastly improved predictive performance on both 2D and 1D real data, validating our structured approach.